A Unique Situation

(Picture Source: Yardbarker.com)

Since various media members reported that Mark Richt was on the hot seat prior to the Damon Evans debacle, the status of Richt’s job has naturally become a hot topic in the media since Wednesday. According to Senator Blutarsky, some are clamoring that this will negatively impact Richt’s ability to keep his job. Meanwhile, Mark Bradley at the AJC couldn’t disagree more. He titles his article “Mark Richt’s position will be even stronger with a new AD.” I wanted to write a piece here that would choose a side and provide some evidence for why I chose it…but after some research this really seems like a unique situation.

The question is not when Richt will be on the hot seat. He’s not on the hot seat in 2010, but certainly could be heading into 2011. The unique question of the situation is this: What will have to happen in 2010 for Richt to find the hot seat? It’s a matter of gray area. After Jeremy Foley was hired at Florida in1992, Steve Spurrier reeled off four consecutive SEC Championships, with one year including a National Championship. In December 2004, Auburn hired Jay Jacobs…yes, the same year Tommy Tuberville went 14-0 and brought the SEC Championship back to the Plains for the first time in 15 years. Mal Moore took over at Alabama in 1999 and was replacing Mike Dubose shortly thereafter, but that situation is completely unlike Richt’s considering the UGA football program is not on NCAA probation. Even the Chan Gailey situation that Bradley alluded to in his article is completely different than the Richt situation.

As bad as it may sound if you’re a UGA fan, the situation most closely coincides with the hiring of Mike Hamilton as AD in Knoxville at the University of Tennessee. At that time, Phillip Fulmer was the Head Coach at Tennessee. Mike Hamilton took over in 2003 and Phillip Fulmer hadn’t won the SEC since 1998. Whoever takes over at UGA will start in 2010…and Richt hasn’t won the SEC since 2005. In the four years after 1998, Fulmer had two top-10 finishes. Since 2005, Richt has finished in the top-10 of the Coach’s Poll exactly twice. Between 1999-2002, Fulmer won SEC games at a .719 clip. Between 2006-2009, Richt won SEC games at a .625 clip.

Still, Fulmer managed to hang onto his job until the 2008 season that ended without a bowl game; it was the second season to end without a bowl game in his tenure, including 2005. So, how did he stay afloat for so long? He finished second in the East in 2003, won the East in 2004, and won the East in 2007. What does Richt have to do stay off the hot seat heading into 2011? Clearly, if he wins the East in 2010 he’s safe. But what are the other scenarios?  If he finishes with 4 losses or more, he’s definitely facing a difficult season in 2011. The season that causes the most problems is 9-3 and second place finish in the East. If he goes 9-3 with losses to UT, UF, and GT, then he’s unquestionably in trouble. What about a different type of 9-3? What about 9-3 with losses to South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn?

It’ll be extremely interesting to see how 2010 develops. Let’s just hope Michael Adams and UGA hires somebody more competent than Mike Hamilton.