Why Georgia football will not win more than eight games in 2016
It’s time to pump the brakes on Georgia football’s expectations for the upcoming season.
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Georgia fans are excited, and I can totally understand their reasoning. This year’s recruiting class was one of the best in the country, Nick Chubb is on the mend and should play at some point in 2016 (if not the first game) and Kirby Smart, who helped Nick Saban build a dynasty at Alabama, is now the team’s head coach.
The program’s fans put their excitement on full display on April 16 when they packed into Sanford Stadium for G-Day, Georgia’s annual spring game. The Bulldogs practiced that day in front of 93,000 fans who clearly support the new direction in which the program is headed under Smart.
That’s fine and dandy. Be supportive. Be excited. But be realistic.
Dawn of the Dawg recently polled its Twitter followers about their expectations for Georgia football in 2016. Nearly 70 percent of the voters said they think the Bulldogs will win nine or more games.
The sample size for that poll is limited, but just scour social media in general and you’ll find a bevy of Georgia fans who would probably agree with our loyal followers.
But Georgia will not win more than eight games this season. Here’s why:
The Schedule
Georgia garnered criticism the last few years for having an easy schedule, but that really isn’t the case this year. The Bulldogs face North Carolina and Ole Miss, plus their usual round of SEC East foes, which features a couple of strong programs.
The Tar Heels probably won’t be as good as they were last season because their offense will be pretty inexperienced and they lost quarterback Marquise Williams to the NFL. However, North Carolina’s defense figures to continue its upward trend under defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, who turned the Tar Heels’ defense around in a big way last season. I expect that to continue in 2016, and that should give Georgia a loss in week one.
Tennessee will likely again be the favorite to win the SEC East this year, and I think the Volunteers will finally get it done. Joshua Dobbs leads the most experienced offensive unit in the division, which should give Georgia too much trouble for the Bulldogs to overcome.
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Ole Miss beat eventual champion Alabama last year. Looking back, that was probably a fluke, but the fact remains that Ole Miss football is on the rise and Vaught–Hemingway Stadium is a tough venue for Rebels opponents. Chad Kelly should lead Ole Miss to a win over Georgia.
Though Florida probably won’t be as good as it was in 2015, thanks to the departures of players such as Vernon Hargreaves and Will Grier, the Gators have a full year with head coach Jim McElwain under their belts and still should field a strong defensive unit. The Georgia-Florida game is typically volatile, so this one could go either way, but I expect Florida to be the tougher team to beat.
Georgia should get through its regular season with an 8-4 mark. Obviously, the Bulldogs could reach nine wins during bowl season, but there’s no way of making any predictions for that game right now.
Don’t overlook Missouri, though. The Tigers’ defense could lead them to an upset victory over the Bulldogs – much like it almost did last year – and they have the advantage of playing Georgia at home. If that happens in addition to the above losses, then a nine-win season becomes impossible.
The Lack of Veterans
Georgia lost a ton of talent to the NFL over the off season.
Malcolm Mitchell, John Theus and Keith Marshall were all drafted, and Quayvon Hicks and Jay Rome signed as free agents. That’s a huge blow to Georgia’s offense, removing Georgia’s primary receiver from last year, one of Georgia’s best offensive linemen of the last decade and three crucial pieces to the team’s running game.
If Jacob Eason starts at quarterback, then that means Georgia will have a mostly young and inexperienced offensive unit on the field. Terry Godwin and Reggie Davis will probably lead the receiving group, but most of the guys behind them in the depth chart haven’t played much. The offensive line returns most of its contributors from last season, but a lot of those guys haven’t seen consistent playing time.
The Bulldogs’ tight ends and running backs will be the most seasoned position groups on the field for Georgia. That may be enough to power a strong rushing attack en route to victory in most of Georgia’s games, but, against better opponents, it could lead to the Bulldogs’ downfall.
I anticipate Georgia will feature a strong offense by the end of the year when the players have seen a lot of action and developed a strong rapport, but facing North Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee in the first five games won’t be an easy task.
I’m not too concerned about Georgia’s defense. It’s the youthful offense that will cost the Bulldogs.
The New Coaching Staff
Let me be clear – I thought the hiring of Kirby Smart was a fantastic move by Georgia athletic director Greg McGarity.
It seemed most Georgia fans were upset by McGarity’s firing of Mark Richt, then he knocked it out of the park by scooping up Smart from Alabama. He’s rejuvenated the program in ways many thought were unimaginable considering he hasn’t even coached a game.
Smart’s assembled what appears to be a strong cast of assistant coaches, including offensive coordinator Jim Chaney and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. Despite the coaches’ prowess, there’s something fans need to consider: Most of these guys have never coached together before now.
The only returnees to Georgia’s staff from last season are outside linebackers coach Kevin Sherrer and defensive line coach Tracy Rocker. Of course, the coaches have had time to adjust to each other and the players during practice, but practice is a different animal than actual games.
This is Smart’s first head coaching job, too, so the coaching staff is a huge question mark as it stands three months before the season begins. The coaches have to learn how to coach new players and how to coach alongside one another.
Change isn’t always easy, and such drastic changes to Georgia’s coaching staff could mean an extended period of growing pains once the season starts.
I think Smart and his staff will be among the SEC’s best in a year or two, but I don’t expect them to reach that level in year one. A 7-5 or 8-4 regular season would be good enough for Georgia in the first year of the program’s new era.
Bulldog fans shouldn’t react negatively when the team doesn’t win more games.