It’s been four years since Georgia won the SEC East. That ends in 2016.
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The SEC East is regularly the weakest division in the conference. That fact alone typically gets Georgia fans’ hopes up for a division title. In recent years, though, those hopes have preceded disappointment.
Despite owning arguably better overall talent than any East foe, Georgia has come up short four years in a row. But in Kirby Smart’s first year as the team’s head coach, that won’t be the case.
Georgia is going to win the SEC East in 2016. Here’s why:
The Rest Of The Field
Let’s be honest. The other teams in the SEC East can’t touch Georgia’s talent.
If Florida still had Will Grier (and he was eligible), then I’d smell a repeat for the Gators. But he’s gone, as are Vernon Hargreaves III, who anchored Florida’s defense, and others. Jim McElwain’s second season in Gainesville won’t be nearly as successful as his first.
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Missouri will probably boast a strong defense again in 2016. The Tigers’ defense is always good, but their offense is regularly suspect. That alone should ensure Georgia a victory over Missouri, and most teams in the East should have a fairly easy time getting past Missouri.
I think Kentucky is an underrated team that will score a surprise victory or two this season. However, I don’t think one of those wins will come against Georgia. South Carolina’s rebuilding, so it’s hard to imagine the Gamecocks being a legitimate threat against many teams. And Vanderbilt’s just plain bad, so the Commodores aren’t going to win the division.
That leaves one team: Tennessee.
It seems like the Volunteers are always expected to win the East (at least according to people outside Georgia). Every time people jump on the Tennessee hype train, though, it derails. I think it’ll happen again this season.
Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd are phenomenal, and they’ll surely have impressive showings again this year. Tennessee has too many potential stumbling blocks to overcome this year, though, so I think the Volunteers will fall short yet again.
Tennessee has to face Texas A&M on the road, which is no easy task at Kyle Field. It may sound crazy, but Virginia Tech could pull off an upset come week two when the Hokies face the Vols at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Then there’s Alabama and Florida. Tennessee hasn’t beaten the Crimson Tide since 2006 and the Gators have had Tennessee’s number since 2005. Dobbs and Hurd couldn’t lead the Volunteers to wins against those teams last year, and I think the losing streaks will get extended again this year.
With all those opponents in mind, Georgia may not even have to beat Tennessee one-on-one to clinch the East. Georgia’s got tough games against Ole Miss and the Volunteers, but, at the end of the day, I can’t imagine Georgia having a worse season than any of the remaining squads in the East.
Georgia’s Defense
I’ll never understand why Georgia’s defense doesn’t get more credit. Year in and year out, Georgia’s defenders quietly have big seasons. They’re poised to continue that trend in 2016.
Despite losing Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins, the Bulldogs’ linebackers shouldn’t miss a step. Having Lorenzo Carter and Davin Bellamy ready to take over for them should ensure Georgia’s linebacker group remains elite.
The Bulldogs’ secondary is one of the best in the SEC, too. In fact, Georgia ranked No. 1 in the SEC – and the country – last year in terms of passing defense, allowing just 156.5 passing yards per game. Georgia’s defensive backs hauled in 12 interceptions, good for sixth-most in the league. With the lethal Dominick Sanders and Malkom Parrish leading the way, look for Georgia to once against boast an impressive secondary.
If there’s one element of Georgia’s defense that could struggle, it’s the defensive line. The defensive line returns Trenton Thompson, John Atkins and Jonathan Ledbetter. Georgia lost Chris Mayes, Josh Dawson, Sterling Bailey and James DeLoach to graduation. Those guys combined for 120 tackles last year, so replacing them won’t be easy.
Still, Georgia’s linebackers and defensive backs can offset some of the defensive line’s growing pains.
Georgia’s Favorable Schedule
The Bulldogs have to take on Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee in three-straight games near the beginning of the season. That’s tough.
But Georgia has home field advantage against the Volunteers – something that will surely help in a series as volatile as that one’s become – and Missouri is definitely beatable on the road for a team as talented as Georgia, regardless of how good the Tigers’ defense may be.
Georgia will probably lose at Ole Miss. I think the Rebels will be the SEC West champs, and facing them in Oxford with a young offense doesn’t bode well for the Bulldogs. But after that, Georgia will still be alive in the hunt for the East.
The Volunteers will travel to Athens the next week. If the Bulldogs can knock them off (provided they defeated Missouri two weeks prior), then Georgia will be sitting pretty in the standings.
All the Bulldogs will have to do from there is take care of South Carolina on the road, which would’ve been tough three years ago, and beat Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida and Auburn.
Vanderbilt and Auburn are coming to Sanford Stadium, and the game against Florida isn’t a true road game. That means Georgia will face three of its final four conference opponents in front of a raucous, supportive crowd.
Playing in front of a favorable crowd in the majority of their biggest games will energize the Bulldogs and assist them in rattling their opponents.
All of these factors equate to one thing: A divisional title for the Bulldogs.