Why Georgia Football won’t win the SEC East in 2016

Georgia Football is one of three main candidates to win the SEC East next year.

Related Story: Why Georgia Football will win the SEC East in 2016

However, Georgia won’t win their SEC division next year. It is that simple. While I have argued that UGA will get over the nine-win hump this fall, the Dawgs should not and will not win the SEC East for several reasons.

The Other Contenders

First off, look at the teams around them. The two main contenders to win the East besides Georgia are Florida and Tennessee. The Volunteers are viewed by many as the favorite to win the division and for good reason.

Vols head coach Butch Jones has recruited very well, and the Volunteers have more talent on their squad than any other team in the East. The Volunteers should have one of the best offenses in the country next year. It starts with Josh Dobbs at quarterback. He’s the second-best signal-caller in the conference behind Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly. His veteran presence along with his athleticism and decent arm make him a weapon indeed.

The rest of the backfield is star-studded as well as the Vols have one of the best backfield duos in the country in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. Jalen Hurd is a big framed (6-4, 240 pound), physical back, who is the ultimate workhorse for this Vol’s team. Hurd rushed for over 1,288 yards and twelve touchdowns in 2015. Alvin Kamara is also a solid running back that put up good numbers last season as well.

The rest of the offense is talented too. The receiving corps is on paper one of the best units in the SEC with Josh Smith, Josh Malone, etc. but has been an inconsistent group. Tight end won’t be a question mark as they return the experienced Ethan Wolf, who was fourth on the team in receiving yards in 2015.

The offensive line will again be solid as the experienced group returns four starters. Talent has always been easy to come by in the Butch Jones’ UT era, but they have two things they haven’t always had – experience and leadership.

The defensive unit is getting a new coach in former Penn State defensive coordinator Bob Shoop. This should pay dividends and shore up a unit that is very talented. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin is the unquestioned leader and best player on this defense. He led the Volunteers in tackles with 105 stops last season.

The Volunteers also know how to get to the QB. After all, defensive end Derek Barnett had 10 sacks last year and is one of the best pass rushers in the conference and probably in the entire country. The secondary is talented as well led by two great defensive backs that are both even better in the return game in Cam Sutton and Evan Berry.

Tennessee went 9-4 last year but were a lot better than their record showed. They lost in triple overtime to CFB Playoff team Oklahoma, missed a game-winning field goal against SEC East Champion Florida, lost to a good Arkansas team by a four points and gave eventual national champion Alabama their best game of the regular season.

Safe to say, the Vols choked more often than not in 2015, but Tennessee looks to learn from that and is poised to win the East this year and even be a contender for the CFB Playoff. Tennessee has amazing potential.

The other main contender is last year’s SEC East Champion Florida Gators. Jim McElwain had an incredible first season at the Gators’ head coaching helm last season. The Gators went 10-2 in the regular season despite having terrible quarterback play after starting QB Will Grier was suspended for taking PEDs early in the season.

The QB play this season certainly can’t be any worse. Last year’s starter Treon Harris has switched from quarterback to wide receiver this season, which proves that there is still good in this world. (He was terrible; I am sorry.) Grier has transferred from the program, and the quarterback race is wide open.

The two main candidates to win the QB job are Purdue transfer Austin Appleby and Luke Del Rio. Del Rio was very impressive in the Gators’ spring game and seems to have a solid feel for the offense. The Gators must have at least decent play at this position this fall, and I think they will. It is definitely the main factor that will decide how far Florida can go next year.

The rest of the offense is also a question mark, but the Gators have more experience on the offensive line than they did last season, and whoever plays QB will be able to utilize the best weapon on this offense. That is wide receiver Antonio Callaway, who, besides scoring the game winning touchdown against Tennessee that decided the East in 2015, led the team in receiving.

While the offense still needs to grow and gel and new playmakers need to emerge, the defense will again be one of the best stop units in the country. Geoff Collins’ group gave opposing offenses fits last season as they finished as a top ten defense. They lose some talent, but the Gator D has the right guys returning to be just as good this year.

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The Gators return their top tackler in linebacker Jarrad Davis, a strong defensive line led by two dangerous pass-rushers at defensive end in Bryan Cox, Jr. and CeCe Jefferson and Caleb Brantley on the interior and a very good secondary led by Jalen Tabor and Marcus Maye. Safe to say, the Gators are going to be pretty good on defense this year. They are definitely a contender to defend their division title in 2016.

The Schedule

The schedule obviously plays a massive part in how good a team will be and will be a key factor in the 2016 SEC East race. Let’s start with Georgia’s schedule. While I previously argued that Georgia will win 9+ games, their schedule is not easy. There are 4-5 games that UGA could easily lose. Granted, I don’t think they will, but it is definitely a tricky schedule to navigate.

Tennessee has a difficult schedule as well, but with the talent the Vols have, I believe they will go 11-1 in the regular season with their only loss being to our Bulldogs on October 1. Yes, the Vols will upset Alabama in Knoxville next year and will win the East.

Florida’s schedule is absolutely ridiculous. They could be better in 2016, but their record might not show it. I could see them losing five or even six games next fall. That is how tough their 2016 slate is. Personally, I see them going in the 9-3 to 8-4 range, but they could definitely surprise.

Georgia’s Own Problems

While Georgia does have talent and will be a contender for the division this upcoming season, they definitely have some questions of their own. For one, quarterback is still up in the air, the defensive line is thin and depth is an issue at a bunch of positions.

UGA also loses it’s top two pass rushers in linebackers Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins to the NFL. That is particularly scary from a UGA fan’s perspective since Georgia’s pass rush was a big reason that the secondary looked so good, and Georgia had the best pass defense in the nation.

They also need some leaders to step up particularly on defense as Kirby Smart has pointed out multiple times in the past. While Georgia has multiple issues of concern, I think the two main things that will keep Georgia from being truly great and winning the East are the play and depth of its offensive and defensive lines of scrimmage.

Smart won’t have the luxury of having so many quality bodies like Alabama does, but through solid recruiting, he is making strides to change that. Until that happens, Georgia should manage expectations.

Bottom line is that Georgia won’t win the East. That is not to say they will not be in contention, and for the Bulldogs’ sake, I hope I am wrong.