Georgia Basketball: The tough road to the NCAA Tournament

Matt Green

Feb 18, 2017; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs guard J.J. Frazier (30) drives past Kentucky Wildcats guard Dominique Hawkins (25) in the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Kentucky won 82-77. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Feb 18, 2017; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia basketball guard J.J. Frazier (30) drives past Kentucky Wildcats guard Dominique Hawkins (25) in the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Kentucky won 82-77. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no sugarcoating it. The chances of Georgia basketball getting to the NCAA Tournament are slim to none.

The Bulldogs are currently 15-12 (6-8) and are tied for ninth in the SEC. But their chances just got even slimmer with the news that Yante Maten is out for the rest of the regular season, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be back for the SEC tournament in Nashville from Mar. 8 to Mar. 12.

The Bulldogs were so close to getting a marquee win on Saturday, but ended up falling short in an 82-77 loss to no. 13 Kentucky.

Georgia currently ranks no. 50 in RPI (Rankings Power Index) and has the no. 13 SOS (Strength of Schedule) in the country.

But one thing remains constant: The Bulldogs are still without that marquee win.

Their one win over an RPI top 50 team was their 76-68 win over Vanderbilt on Jan. 17. They do have five other wins against RPI top 100 teams, but it’s going to take more that that in the eyes of the committee.

In Georgia’s six games against ranked teams this season, the Dawgs are 0-6, with an average margin of 7.2 points, and two of those losses came in overtime on the road at Florida and Kentucky.

But here’s what it’s going to take for the Bulldogs to get to the Big Dance:

LSU plays Georgia basketball this weekend — Jan 28, 2017; Lubbock, TX, USA; Louisiana State Tigers guard Antonio Blakeney (2) drives to the basket against Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Justin Gray (5) during the SEC-Big 12 Challenge at United Supermarkets Arena. Texas Tech defeated Louisiana State 77-64. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

LSU (9-18, 1-14)

LSU is currently the worst team in the SEC, with just one conference win on the season. This is like a cupcake game against an FCS school. It’s not an important game… unless you lose. The Tigers have currently lost 13 straight games, including their last three by an average of 20.3 points.

The tigers are currently no. 161 in the RPI and they only have two wins over RPI top 100 teams this season (Houston and Charleston)

Georgia basketball vs Auburn — Dec 29, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs guard J.J. Frazier (30) takes a shot against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at Auburn Arena. The Georgia Bulldogs defeated Auburn 96-84. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn (17-11, 6-9)

Georgia beat the Tigers 96-84 on the road back in December. Auburn is currently 11th in the SEC and have lost three of their last four, with the only win coming against LSU. If the Dawgs are going to get in the tournament, they should easily knock off the Tigers.

Auburn is currently no. 71 in the RPI. The Tigers have zero wins over RPI top 50 team sand the most impressive mark on their resume is probably two wins against Alabama. They have lost five of their last nine games,

Feb 15, 2017; Columbia, SC, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Dusty Hannahs (3) controls the ball defended by South Carolina Gamecocks guard Sindarius Thornwell (0) during the second half at Colonial Life Arena. Arkansas wins 83-76 over the Gamecocks. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

@ Arkansas (20-7, 9-5)

The Razorbacks are the Dawgs’ toughest test remaining in the regular season, and really their only shot at a marquee win. Arkansas is currently tied for fourth in the SEC, and ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them as a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas is currently no. 34 in the RPI and they have three wins over RPI Top 50 teams (Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and UT-San Antonio). They have won 9 of their last 12 games.

Jan 17, 2017; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs forward Yante Maten (1) works the ball past Vanderbilt Commodores forward Clevon Brown (15) during the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Georgia defeated Vanderbilt 76-68. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Tournament – Second Round

(8) Vanderbilt vs. (9) Georgia

With the way the SEC standings currently sit, the Bulldogs are likely to play Vanderbilt in the opening round of the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs beat the Commodores back in January. Maten led the Dawgs in scoring with 21 points that night, but Juwan Parker also added 17 points, one of the few games this season that Maten and Frazier were not the two leading scorers.

Vanderbilt is currently no. 46 in the RPI with the second toughest schedule in the entire country. The Commodores have four wins coming against RPI top 50 teams (@ Florida, Iowa State, @ Arkansas, South Carolina). After losing four straight at the beginning of January, Vanderbilt has won 7 of their last 10 games.

Feb 18, 2017; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs guard J.J. Frazier (30) shoots the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Kentucky won 82-77. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Tournament – Quarterfinals

(1) Kentucky vs. (9) Georgia

Kentucky and Florida are currently tied at the top of the SEC, with the Gators dismantling the Wildcats back on Feb. 4. But something tells me things will be different on Saturday at Rupp Arena and the Wildcats will win and snag the top seed in the SEC tournament.

It’s difficult to beat anyone three times, especially with how tough Georgia played Kentucky in both of their meetings this year. The Bulldogs need Maten to pull the upset, but they gained some confidence this past weekend with how well they played without him.

If the Bulldogs can upset Kentucky and get to the semifinals, that would bring their record to 21-12, and I think that will be enough to get the Dawgs into the Big Dance.