The 2016-17 season has been a disappointment for Georgia Basketball. But was it bad enough to warrant firing Mark Fox once the season ends?
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After three straight 20-win seasons, Georgia basketball fans had to be excited about the 2016-17 season. And after going 8-4 in nonconference play, including a great performance against Kansas in Kansas City, that excitement was justified.
When conference play began, all the Bulldogs had to do was win the games they were favored to win, beat Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky once each, and then finish with a tough game at Arkansas.
The beginning of conference play was fine. After four games, the Bulldogs were 3-1 with their only loss coming at home to South Carolina. But an overtime loss to Florida gave Georgia their second conference loss. From there the Bulldogs couldn’t afford to lose many more games.
But then Georgia had the disastrous ending versus Texas A&M and then was blown out at home by Alabama. They bounced back with a win over Texas before losing to Kentucky in overtime. That was followed by a two-point loss to South Carolina and another loss to Florida.
Since then however, Georgia has won four of their last five games with wins over Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama and LSU. Currently Joe Lunardi has Georgia listed as one of his first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament.
That’s not where Georgia fans expected to be just two months ago. But is that enough to warrant a head coaching change in the offseason? That’s a subjective question and there’s still two regular season games and a whole conference tournament to play out.
However, we can look at possible scenarios and determine how Georgia Athletic Director Greg McGarity will probably handle Mark Fox’s hot seat.
Georgia loses out or splits last two and exits the SEC Tournament early
Here’s is the worst case scenario. Georgia basketball still has two regular season games left. Tomorrow the Bulldogs play Auburn at home, Georgia has already beaten them once but Bruce Pearl has the Tigers playing their best basketball in years.
The last game is this Saturday at Arkansas, a team that probably already has the resume needed to make the NCAA Tournament.
If Georgia loses both of those games, they will finish the regular season 17-14 and 8-10 in the SEC. Splitting them would put Georgia at 18-13 and 9-9 in the SEC.
Georgia would then end up playing an inferior team in their first game but one of the better teams in the SEC a day later. A loss in their first game would set them back to 17-15 or 18-14.
Greg McGarity already fired a football coach after a 9-3 regular season because the team didn’t match the expectations of him and the fan base. He would very likely do the same to Mark Fox if Georgia loses 14 regular season games and doesn’t make a run in the SEC Tournament.
Georgia loses out or splits, but makes a run in the SEC Tournament
What would happen if Georgia settles for a 17-14 or 18-13 regular season record but wins a couple of games in the SEC Tournament or even makes it all the way to the SEC Championship game.
The Bulldogs will have reach 19-20 wins or maybe even 21 wins. That would make four straight 20-win seasons, a first in school history.
Georgia would likely be 19-15 or 20-14 and be going to the NIT for a chance to win their 20th or 21st game there. Or if Georgia does manage to get all the way to the SEC Championship game, that might be enough for the selection committee to include Georgia in the NCAA Tournament.
Considering how low Georgia fell to midway through conference play and the team Georgia returns next year. The school will probably chose to keep Fox for next year. But his leash will be very tight and if Georgia has a bad start to the 2017-18 schedule, a decision might be made by January.
Georgia loses out or splits, but wins the SEC Tournament
Now what if Georgia shocks the conference like they did nine years ago, goes on an incredible run in the tournament and then wins the SEC Title game?
The Bulldogs would be 21-14 or 22-13, but they would certainly be in the NCAA Tournament as a 10th or maybe even a ninth or eighth seed.
Georgia still returns a team next year that should be the best of Mark Fox’s tenure in Athens. Winning the SEC Tournament and making the NCAA Tournament would give fans so much to look forward to next season. Firing Fox would be a big mistake.
But his leash will still be tight. McGarity might let a bad start slide, but if Georgia doesn’t follow 2017 with another NCAA Tournament birth in 2018, it will be time to move on from Coach Fox.
Georgia wins out but exits the SEC Tournament early
The best case scenario for the regular season but worst case for the SEC Tournament. Georgia could finish 19-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC. A win over Arkansas to end the year could be just what the section committee needs to see to include Georgia in the NCAA Tournament.
But losing in their first or second SEC Tournament game could bounce Georgia right back to the group of the first four teams out of the tournament.
Still, expectations will be high for the 2017-18 season and Georgia will be on their fourth straight 20-win season. Fox should be safe going into next year, but like with previous scenarios, he’ll likely be fired if next year is a disaster.
Georgia wins out and makes run or wins the SEC Tournament
The absolute best case scenario for the next two weeks. Georgia could finish 19-12 in the SEC but then reach 20 wins with a win in their first game. From there Georgia will be able to build on that record and their tournament resume.
They’ll be playing either Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina or Arkansas in their second game. Beating one of those teams after playing six close games with the first three teams mentioned might be enough for the committee. Georgia will be 21-12 at that point.
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Most likely Georgia would be playing another one of the top four SEC Teams in the Conference final four. But someone like Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Alabama might sneak into that round. Either way, Georgia could end up 22-12 and playing for an SEC Title.
From there Georgia could finish 22-13 and be conference runner-ups, or 23-12 and conference champions. At that point, Georgia might only be playing for a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament if they’ve earned a spot already.
With a finish like that, Mark Fox would be safe to coach for next season and it would only take an awful season for him to be fired. If Georgia manages to make the tournament again in 2018, he might even earn an extension. But there will at least only be whispers of the hot seat heading into the 2017-18 season .