Fact No. 2: The value of the player may not match the value of the pick the Falcons have.
Every pick in the draft has an approximate salary attached to it. For example, in the 2020 draft, the Falcons will pick 16th overall. That pick comes with a salary of approximately $13,498,945 over four years with a $7,837,414 signing bonus. This salary would average around $3,374,736 for the first four years. According to Overthecap.com:
In 2016 the Falcons took Keanu Neal with the No. 17 overall pick. He will make a total of $17,203,646 since the Falcons agreed to activate his fifth-year option this year.
In 2019 the Falcons took Chris Lindstrom with the No. 14 overall pick. His deal is worth $14,708,756 with an option to make more if his fifth-year option is activated.
As you can see that is a lot of money to invest in a player that has not played a single down in the NFL. This is why General Managers are very careful about who they take. They can’t prioritize where a player went to school with so much of an investment riding on the success of the pick.
There is not only a monetary value on each pick but also an evaluation ranking given to each player in the draft. For example, Benjamin Solak of thedraftnetwork.com has put out his top 221 big board. He has included six Georgia players on his big board. Here is how they are ranked.
- Andrew Thomas, No. 6
- D’Andre Swift, No. 16
- Jake Fromm, No. 42
- Tyler Clark, No. 127
- J.R. Reed, No. 169
- Solomon Kindley, No. 179
For comparison sake, here is where the Falcons pick.
- First round No. 16
- Second Round No. 47
- Second Round No. 55
- Third Round No. 78
- Fourth Round No. 109
- Fifth Round No. 140
- Seventh Round No. 206
As you can see, according to Solak’s board Atlanta would really only have a shot at Swift and the rest would be valued before the Falcons’ picks. This is why, a lot of the time, the Falcons do not get to pick Georgia players. It’s not because they do not want to, but their value doesn’t match where Atlanta is picking at.
Fact No. 3: Georgia runs a 3-4 defense and Atlanta runs a 4-3 defense.
The Bulldogs and Falcons run completely different defensive schemes making it difficult for Georgia players to fit Atlanta’s needs on defense.
A prime example is at pass rusher, not every edge rusher can be a defensive end. No matter how good a pass rusher is from a standing position, if a team plays with their pass rushers putting their hands in the dirt, they may not be a fit.
Another good example is the interior linemen on the defensive line. They have completely different assignments and roles. In a 3-4 defense, the defensive line absorbs blocks to allow the linebackers to make most of the plays. In a 4-3 the defensive line needs to shed blocks as the linebackers play more of a coverage role.
The front seven positions in the two defenses are not as interchangeable as you would imagine. They are quite different and it would make more sense for Atlanta to look towards a team that plays closer to their defensive scheme.