Georgia football: Bulldogs vs Crimson Tide by the numbers
Georgia football fans are getting geared up for another meeting with Alabama and hoping for vastly different results than the previous five meetings.
The Georgia football program has a stone in its shoe, and that stone is none other than the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide. The last two meetings between the Dawgs and Tide have been epic, instant classics.
The upcoming meeting between the No. 2 Crimson Tide and No. 3 Bulldogs has all the earmarks of another memorable meeting, with SEC supremacy on the line.
Despite being neighbors, these two SEC bluebloods don’t play often during the regular season. This will be the first meeting other than postseason matchups since 2015, when the Bulldogs were predicted to de-throne Alabama but fell hard in a rainy 38-10 defeat at Sanford Stadium.
What do the numbers say about this upcoming clash of Top 5 teams?
Overall Series Record: Alabama leads, 40-25-4
Since 2000: Alabama leads, 5-3
Longest Winning Streak: Alabama, 5 (1922–26, 1949–53, 1960–64, 2008–present)
Georgia, 5 (1910–16)
Last Game in Tuscaloosa: Georgia 26 – Alabama 23 (OT), 2007
When Both Teams are Ranked: Alabama leads, 5-4
When Both Teams are Top 10: Alabama leads, 4-2
When Both Teams are Top 5: Alabama leads, 3-1
When Alabama is Ranked Higher: Alabama leads, 10-2
October Meetings: Alabama leads, 13-11-1
In Bryant-Denny Stadium: Alabama leads, 6-2
Nick Saban vs Former Assistants: Saban leads, 21-0
So when you take a snapshot of the overall series, and all the splits that come into play with the 2020 meeting, it’s all pointing towards an Alabama win. Vegas seems to agree, with the Tide being favored by six points as of the time of this being written.
Yeah, but…
Georgia football vs Alabama in 2020
Despite Alabama’s long string of success against the Bulldogs, this 2020 squad may be one of the outliers to all that historical data.
If the eye test of Georgia’s stifling defense and improved offensive play next to Alabama’s atrocious defensive showing against Ole Miss isn’t enough to make fans believe, here are some numbers that point to Georgia being (here’s where Bama fans get riled up) the better team this year.
Rushing Defense (National rank):
Georgia – 38.33 yards per game (No. 1)
Alabama – 150.67 yards per game (No. 37)
Pass Defense (National rank):
Georgia – 198.3 yards per game (No. 21)
Alabama – 322.3 yards per game (No. 70)
Scoring Defense (National rank):
Georgia – 12.3 points per game (No. 5)
Alabama – 30 points per game (No. 44)
Total Defense (National rank):
Georgia – 236.7 yards per game (No. 2)
Alabama – 473 yards per game (No. 66)
And it wasn’t just the poor showing against Ole Miss that inflated those numbers for Alabama’s defense. They gave up 322 yards of offense to Missouri and 450 yards against Texas A&M.
The ever-improving Georgia receiving corps – especially Kearis Jackson – should be able to have a breakout day against a porous Alabama secondary. Bulldog quarterback Stetson Bennett will need to play within himself as he’s done all season and not let the pressure of the big stage rattle him.
How about on offense? The disparity flip-flops a bit when looking at production on that side of the ball.
Rushing Offense (National rank):
Georgia – 172 yards per game (No. 35)
Alabama – 175.33 yards per game (No. 33)
Passing Offense (National rank):
Georgia – 248 yards per game (No. 31)
Alabama – 385 yards per game (No. 2)
Scoring Offense (National rank):
Georgia – 36 points per game (No. 22)
Alabama – 51 points per game (No. 1)
Total Offense (National rank):
Georgia – 420 yards per game (No. 34)
Alabama – 560.3 yards per game (No. 3)
So clearly, this is a stark contrast to regular-season meetings in the past, when Alabama was leaning on a crushing defense to win games, and Georgia was airing it out and running up and down the field scoring points.
So, is this immovable object meeting irresistible force, or does one of these two teams have a clear advantage?
While Alabama’s defense has struggled in every game so far this year, offensively their eye-popping numbers really ballooned because of the 63-point performance against Lane Kiffin’s non-existent defense. In that game alone, Bama accrued 723 yards of total offense, averaging 10.18 yards per play.
When it comes to football in the SEC, you almost always give the nod to the team with the stronger defense, particularly when the difference is as clear as it is here. The key for Georgia will be stopping Alabama’s offensive superstars Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and John Metchie, and making quarterback Mac Jones as uncomfortable as possible.
Speaking of Mac Jones, this could be the first real test for Alabama’s new starting quarterback. Thus far, Alabama is only allowing 1.33 sacks per game and 4.67 tackles for loss. Georgia’s 3.33 sacks per game and 5.33 tackles for loss would indicate the Alabama offensive line will have their hands full. Their three previous opponents were not quite as imposing at the line.
In the end, the only number that will really count is the one flashed up on the scoreboard at Bryant-Denny Stadium when the clock reads 0:00 in the fourth quarter. Given what we know, and the extra incentive the Bulldogs have to end Bama’s dominance, this is a pretty safe prediction.