Georgia football takes on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday at 3:30. There is a ton on the line in this one, as both teams are playing for the upper hand in the SEC East. In the SEC Division final year, it comes down to Georgia and Mizzou. Try telling someone in 1992 that in 20-ish years, it would come down to Mizzou and Georgia for the SEC East crown. They could not believe it, and as someone living in 2023, nor can I.
Georgia is a 15.5-point favorite. That number has held firm about all week, as Georgia opened up as a 17.5-point favorite, and it dipped only two points. So what does that tell you? The sharps and the books believe in the Dawgs to cover, and more than likely, the public is betting on Mizzou. But now and again, the public does beat the house. So, who knows? \
But I have to level with you; I feel confident going into this one. My gut is telling me it will be a splattering of Mizzou. My brain is making me think about the 2021 Arkansas and Kentucky games. Both teams entered Sanford Stadium highly ranked with an excellent record, and both exited with a loss.
Here is why I feel that way: Georgia has the better coaches and football players. Usually, that is a good recipe for anybody to win. I have a ton of respect for Mizzou. They have had a great season to this point, and they are a very exciting football team.
Furthermore, Luther Burnden III is a ball player; we will see him on Sundays soon. But Georgia has more NFL-type guys than Mizzou and has them as backups. Mizzou has tough, scrappy guys. That might win you 9-10 games a year, but to be where the Dawgs are at, you need NFL talent everywhere.
The numbers also support a Dawgs win as well. To pull off an upset inside Sanford Stadium, you must be able to do one thing, and that is force turnovers. Think back to that 2019 South Carolina game and how many times the ball was turned over! Furthermore, Carolina scored on a pick-six, which increases your odds of winning.
If Carson Beck throws two or more picks, Georgia is in trouble. But Georgia is one of the best teams in not turning the ball over, and Mizzou is 107th in creating turnovers. Mizzou is near the bottom of getting or creating turnovers.
But to me, here is the most important number to remember. If you recall, last week, I said it would come down to third downs against Florida. Georgia has the best third-down defense and 3rd best third-down offense in the country. So, where does Mizzou rank? Mizzou’s defense on third down is 62nd, and Mizzou’s offense is 60th in the country. It once again comes down to third down.
For Mizzou to pull off the upset, they must inverse their numbers. That is a tall task, especially if you are playing the back-to-back champs and the number 2 team in the country at their place. It is nearly impossible!
Georgia should go out there and win decisively. I still think this Mizzou team is a good football and has put the program in the right direction. I greatly respect what they have done this season; this isn’t a Flordia situation. Many in the media cite last year’s game as a reason for an upset. But Georgia played one of its worst games that year in Como and still won. I think Mizzou has this Georgia team’s attention, and I think the Dawgs understand if they play flat against these Tigers, they will get beat.
I like the Dawgs in this one, and I like them to cover the spread. I would not be shocked if the Dawgs go out there and jump on Mizzou early. I would not be surprised if Mizzou scores some points in this one. Dawgs win 52-24.