With one third of the regular season left to be played, the Georgia Bulldogs find themselves comfortably in the College Football Playoff field. The first playoff rankings had the Dawgs ranked No. 5 overall and seeded fifth in the corresponding tournament. Per ESPN's Football Power Index, Georgia has the fifth-best odds to make the College Football Playoff this season at 85.1 percent.
The Dawgs only trail Ohio State (99.1), Indiana (98.6), Alabama (93.0) and Texas A&M (92.7) in that regard. Heading into the Week 11 slate of games, any team above 90 percent feels like a lock, any team around 75 percent is near enough, and any team with better than a 50-percent chance should feel pretty good about themselves. What about the other teams who are still hanging around a bit?
For those who might need a bit of a refresher, these are the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
- Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
- BYU Cougars (8-0)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
- Oregon Ducks (7-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)
- Texas Longhorns (7-2)
- Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
- Utah Utes (7-2)
- Virginia Cavaliers (8-1)
- Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1)
- Miami Hurricanes (6-2)
- USC Trojans (6-2)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
- Michigan Wolverines (6-2)
- Missouri Tigers (6-2)
- Washington Huskies (6-2)
- Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
What we are going to do today is take a look at a handful of teams that a serious playoff contender like Georgia probably does not need to spend any time worrying about them making the playoff. Either they have already beaten them, their pathway into the playoff seems improbable, or if it is too murky to really waste one's time looking at. Some of these might make it in, but they are pretenders.
Let's start with a team who is not mathematically eliminated, but is going to need so much help now.
5. No. 19 USC Trojans (6-2)
The USC Trojans were ranked No. 19 overall in the first College Football Playoff rankings. They are 6-2 on the season with a win over ranked Michigan, but two losses. FPI gives USC only a 16.7-percent chance to make it in. This is because they lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to national independent rival Notre Dame. Their other defeat is to a three-loss Illinois team, but one that might win out anyway.
USC can earn its way into the playoff should it win out. That would require the Trojans to beat Northwestern at home on Friday night, Iowa at home in a week, Oregon on the road in two, and then rival UCLA at home in three. USC can earn two more ranked wins over Iowa and Oregon down the stretch. The only issue is that would be Iowa's third loss and Oregon may not make the playoff either.
Regardless of Notre Dame potentially blocking them, the Big Ten is not going to get four teams in.
4. No. 13 Utah Utes (7-2)
Of the 25 teams that were ranked on Tuesday night, one of the most eye opening was Utah coming in at No. 13. The Utes are a talented team, but who have they beaten? Utah was ranked No. 17 in the AP Top 25 after moving up seven spots after beating Cincinnati. Since the Bearcats are no longer ranked, why is the Selection Committee overvaluing Utah? They do have two ranked losses on their schedule.
They got their brains beaten in by Texas Tech to kick off Big 12 play. Utah also lost on the road to arch rival BYU in Holy War by three points. Yes, Texas Tech and BYU are giving off the vibes of being playoff teams, but Utah should not be within an arm's throw of getting to Arlington. If Texas Tech beats BYU, it will likely be a moot point, as both will have one conference loss and Utah will have lost to both teams.
Utah may be a top-four team in the new Big 12, but its 27.9 percent chance to make the playoff is rich.
3. No. 18 Miami Hurricanes (6-2)
Fact: It is no longer all about The U. The Mario Cristobal of it all once again reared its ugly head last weekend. Miami has two conference losses to Louisville and SMU. While the Louisville loss is looking better by the week, this team stands virtually no shot of getting to Charlotte. Louisville owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Georgia Tech may have just lost, but Virginia is undefeated in league play.
With only an 11.8-percent chance to make the playoff, Georgia does not have to worry about them even stealing an at-large bid anymore. Its two best wins are over a two-loss Notre Dame team and a two-loss South Florida squad. The College Football Playoff loves it some Notre Dame, whereas FPI still somehow grades South Florida favorably. In the end, Miami is going to miss the playoff yet again.
It is the downside to having a head coach who is not adept at calling plays on either side of the ball...
2. No. 22 Missouri Tigers (6-2)
Is it mean to say the Missouri Tigers have no chance in hell of making the playoff right now, even if they are at 6-2? Not really... While they are not the CoMo Paper Tigers of yesteryear, they are down to a true freshman quarterback in Matt Zollers the rest of the way. Beau Pribula's leg is broken, and his backup Sam Horn has been out for a while as well. FPI gives No. 22 Mizzou a 9.9-percentage chance.
Yes, their two losses are by one score to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but they still have to play two top-12 teams to round out the SEC slate. Those would be home vs. Texas A&M this week and at Oklahoma in two. With how their quarterback situation has unraveled, we cannot rule out Mississippi State achieving bowl eligibility in two weeks on their turf. Mizzou's best win is over five-win Kansas.
Missouri had an easy SEC schedule, but did not earn the quality win the Tigers were needing to get.
1. No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
In a way, Tennessee has kind of already overachieved this year. They may be 6-3 on the season with conference losses to Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma, but this had the makings of a 6-6 squad from the start. Right now, its best win is over a five-win Mississippi State team. They will beat New Mexico State in two weeks. They should get past Florida in three. Then it all may come down to Vanderbilt...
That could be a playoff play-in game for the Commodores, maybe even for the Vols if things get wonky. Blessed with only a 2.1-percent chance to make the playoff, the Volunteers opted to live and die by Joey Aguilar's erratic arm. Josh Heupel is still a good head coach, but his Air Raid attack is starting to get figured out by SEC teams. Georgia was able to stop them when it mattered and won.
Tennessee may have three quality losses, but it has no good wins, and might lose for a fourth time.