Death, taxes and the 2025 Georgia Bulldogs making Dawg Nation sweat it out into the final minutes. This is not the most talented Georgia football team Kirby Smart has ever coached, but it sure knows how to win close and ugly... The No. 5 team in the nation is 7-1 overall and 5-1 in SEC with signature victories over Tennessee and Ole Miss. Its lone loss on the season was by three at home to Alabama.
Heading into Week 11, much has been made about the pesky Mississippi State Bulldogs giving Georgia all it can handle in their early-afternoon kickoff. While the point spread has quickly swung even more so in Georgia's favor, betting on Georgia to cover any point spread is not for the faint of heart. That being said, one college football analyst is willing to throw all cards out the window here.
ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote the following blurb about what the thinks will likely transpire in Starkville.
"Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It's a thing they like to do."
Connelly then mentioned the new betting line of Georgia being up to 9.5 points. He added the SP+ projection has Georgia only winning by 7.1 points, but the FPI projection has the Dawgs proving victorious by 8.7. No matter how you slice it, Georgia is giving off the impression that it will be a team that is going to beat at team like Mississippi State on the road by a touchdown or more. It is what it is.
Let's further unpack Connelly's blurb about Georgia to really get a feeling on what is about to happen.
Georgia winning but not covering the point spread feels like the play here
If this game was played in Athens, it might be closer to the margin we saw vs. Kentucky earlier in the season. Historically, being at home gives a team three points it otherwise might not have, but that may no longer be the case. So if we were to flip the 9.5-point spread in Starkville to what it might be in Athens, we could be looking at Georgia as a sizable 15.5-point favorite, in some way, shape or form...
There are two parts in Connelly's blurb about Mississippi State that really stand out. The first is the Bulldogs are coming off their first SEC win in two years. They beat an Arkansas team that has already fired its head coach to improve to 5-4 (1-4) on the season. It is why there is a chance of a pullback. The second is Mississippi State being competitive with no great traits, but no real weaknesses either.
This suggests they are more inclined to play conservatively, rather than recklessly vs. Georgia. Because Georgia typically uses the first two quarters as a feeling-out period, the game may be closer than what Dawg Nation will want going into halftime. That is when Georgia will likely take over. It will run the ball down Mississippi State's throat, play great team defense and lean on Gunner Stockton.
Overall, we are absolutely looking at a game where Georgia ends up winning by something like eight points, enough to cover the initial point spread, but not enough to satisfy the most recent bettors who decided to wager on this team this week. No, it will not be pretty, but what game has looked pretty for this year's ultra-gritty Bulldogs? They love to get down and nasty! This is just who they are.
Once again, this is why you should do what Todd McShay said and bet on Georgia after halftime.