Once again, seeding is everything. As we turn the page on October and get ready for life in the cold November rain, your beloved Georgia Bulldogs look every bit the part of a College Football Playoff team. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Georgia has an 81.5-percentage chance of making the 12-team field entering Week 10. These numbers fluctuate ever so slightly with each passing day.
So while Georgia has had the feel of a playoff team pretty much every week so far this season, it remains to be seen how far they could conceivably go in the playoff field. Getting a first-round bye would be sweet, but Georgia does not control its own destiny in that regard. It seems as though the Big Ten and SEC champions and runners up will get those designation. Will Georgia get to Atlanta?
Well, the 6-1 (4-1) Dawgs need to see Alabama lose two SEC games to knock themselves out of the playoff picture entirely. Texas A&M is one of six teams in the country who has not lost yet. Even if the Dawgs win out and the Aggies drop a game, it is still too early to tell who would get to Atlanta between the to face presumably Alabama. Keep in mind that Georgia and Texas A&M will not face each other...
So without further ado, let's take a look at this week's playoff bracket and see where Georgia ends up.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Week 10
Based solely on ESPN's FPI percentages, this would be the 12-team College Football Playoff field.
- Indiana Hoosiers (8-0): Projected Big Ten champion (96.8 playoff percentage)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (96.4 playoff percentage)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-0): Projected SEC champion (96.0 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1): Projected SEC runner-up (92.4 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (6-1): Projected SEC at-large (81.5 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (7-1): Projected Big Ten at-large (75.0 playoff percentage)
- BYU Cougars (8-0): Projected Big 12 champion (70.4 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (7-1): Projected SEC at-large (68.8 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-0): Projected ACC champion (51.3 playoff percentage)
- Miami Hurricanes (6-1): Projected ACC runner-up (46.6 playoff percentage)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1): Projected SEC at-large (44.1 playoff percentage
- South Florida Bulls (6-2): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (26.7 playoff percentage)
For a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field in this exercise.
- 13. Texas Longhorns (6-2): SEC (41.8 playoff percentage)
- 14. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1): Projected Big 12 runner-up (38.7 playoff percentage)
- 15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2): National independent (29.5 playoff percentage)
- 16. Tennessee Volunteers (6-2): SEC (22.6 playoff percentage)
Georgia would be the third SEC team getting in behind Texas A&M and Alabama. Indiana and Ohio State would be getting the other two byes. In this scenario, Georgia would win the rest of its games to be 11-1 (7-1) on the season. Indiana would beat Ohio State in Indianapolis and Texas A&M would beat Alabama in Atlanta. Obviously, Texas A&M would be either No. 1 or No. 2, but that is not the point here.
Now that we know who would be making the playoff in this exercise, let's see the first-round games.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Here are the four teams getting byes, as well as the eight team who will be playing in the first round.
- No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
- No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (BYE)
- No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (BYE)
- No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls
- No. 6 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores
- No. 7 BYU Cougars vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
With Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Alabama on byes, Georgia would be the best team playing in the first round. The Dawgs would host presumptive AAC/Group of Five winner South Florida, who already has two losses on the season. Alex Golesh is an excellent head coach. Byrum Brown is a fun quarterback, but the Dawgs would win this one in a landslide. So what about the other three games?
Oregon would host Vanderbilt in amid likely Liquid Sunshine. The Ducks feel like a fake tough team, and Diego Pavia is The Live Dog. Anchor Down! It will be Mormons vs. Convicts with BYU hosting Miami. It will be a sad night in Provo with The U moving on. As for the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, Ole Miss will host Georgia Tech in a game that feels very 1950s. Ole Miss will be too hot for the Jackets.
Now that we know who is moving on to the national quarterfinals, let's see those four matchups!
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
Here is who would be playing each other in the first four of six New Year's Six Bowls this January.
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Indiana vs. Ole Miss in the Rose Bowl would be sick! This could be Lane Kiffin's last game leading Ole Miss, as Indiana prevails in a total barn-burner. No. 2 Ohio State would take the Orange Bowl to face the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes in their building. It may have the Buckeyes thinking about taking the Cotton Bowl instead, but it may not be up to them. Carson Beck gets picked off five times in defeat.
As for the Cotton Bowl, Texas A&M may prefer to take that one over the Sugar Bowl, just to make Vanderbilt travel a little bit further from Nashville. Pavia's college career ends in the House That Jerry Jones Built. And you know what that means... Georgia will have to face its perpetual nemesis in Alabama at the same spot where its season ended a year ago in New Orleans. It is more of the same.
With Georgia out of the playoff mix after the Sugar Bowl, let's now turn our attention to the semifinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
With only four teams left, here is who could be playing in the Peach and Fiesta Bowls this winter.
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies
Indiana would have top choice, but Atlanta is closer to Bloomington than Phoenix is. They will have to face Alabama in a stadium where the Crimson Tide are incredibly comfortable in. Again, some of these venue choices may not be up to the team. Because this one is in the Peach Bowl as opposed to the Fiesta Bowl, Indiana's perfect season will have come to an end in Bama's second favorite venue.
As for the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State will take on Texas A&M in the House That Larry Fitzgerald Built. It could go either way, but the College Football Playoff is untrodden territory for the Aggies. Ohio State is more than comfortable in this setting. While the Aggies will gain invaluable experience from this playoff run, like Tyson Ritter of the All-American Rejects once sang, it ends tonight for Texas A&M.
With Indiana and Texas A&M out of the picture, we get the helmet game we deserve in the title bout.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
Behold! A rematch of the 2020 National Championship in the same venue, but with way more people.
- College Football Playoff National Championship Game: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Yes, we will have No. 2 Ohio State taking on No. 4 Alabama at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. These are two of the six or seven teams who have made it this far in these College Football Playoff bracket simulations here at Dawn of the Dawg. Along with Georgia, these are the two strongest programs in the country, year over year. The stronger one prevails once again in Ohio State.
So in an attempt to tie it back to Georgia, the Dawgs need to desperately get on the other side of the bracket from Alabama to have a real shot at this. Perhaps the best pathway forward is for Alabama to win the SEC and hand Texas A&M its first loss of the season. Alabama would probably be No. 2 in that situation, with Texas A&M being No. 4 or No. 5. Georgia should be No. 4 or No. 5 in that hypothetical.
As long as Georgia can avoid drawing Alabama in the national quarterfinals, it should have a chance.