At some point, water will find its level with the best teams in college football. 11 weeks into this thing, and we might know a few things about the sport from a Georgia Bulldogs perspective. Georgia will enter Tuesday night's second College Football Playoff rankings at No. 5 overall. They will probably retain their same seed for a second straight week. The Bulldogs are now approaching lock territory.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Georgia is one of five teams with better than a 90-percent chance to make the 12-team playoff field and one of eight teams with better than an 80-percent chance. That still leaves four sports totally up for grabs, as well as the entire tournament's seeding. Georgia being at 91.9 percent to make it in says that the Dawgs are almost certainly a playoff team.
Right now, all Georgia has to do to make the playoff is win two of its final three games. Those would be at home to Texas on Saturday night, home vs. Charlotte, and at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta vs. Georgia Tech. Charlotte is a bad Group of Five team, so all the Dawgs really need to do is split the Texas and Georgia Tech games to get that crucial 10th regular-season win. It is right there to be had.
From the vantage point of PFI playoff percentages, let's see who would be making the playoff today.
Projected College Football Playoff field after Week 11, based on only FPI
Based solely on ESPN's FPI playoff percentages, this would be the 12-team playoff field right now.
- Indiana Hoosiers (10-0): Projected Big Ten champion (99.8 playoff percentage)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (99.4 playoff percentage)
- Texas A&M Aggies (9-0): Projected SEC champion (98.9 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1): Projected SEC runner-up (95.6 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (8-1): Projected SEC at-large (91.9 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (8-1): Projected Big Ten at-large (86.3 playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1): Projected Big 12 champion (84.2 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-1): Projected SEC at-large (81.4 playoff percentage)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2): Projected national championship (48.0 playoff percentage)
- BYU Cougars (8-1): Projected Big 12 runner-up (45.2 playoff percentage)
- South Florida Bulls (7-2): Projected AAC champion (39.2 playoff percentage)
- James Madison Dukes (8-1): Projected Sun Belt champion (35.8 playoff percentage)
For a little bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field in this field.
- 13. Texas Longhorns (7-2): SEC (45.7 playoff percentage)
- 14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1): Projected ACC champion (35.3 playoff percentage)
- 15. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2): SEC (31.9 playoff percentage)
- 16. North Texas Mean Green (8-1): Projected AAC runner-up (29.8 playoff percentage)
Georgia would be ranked No. 5 overall and seeded fifth. While the chances of the Dawgs getting back to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game are out of their hands now, the SEC is going to get at least four, potentially five of its teams into the playoff. The Big Ten will get three, maybe four. The Big 12 will get one, maybe two. The ACC might be a one-team league, depending on the Group of Five...
There is also the Notre Dame of it all, but let's see what the first round of the playoff may provide us.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Here are the four teams on a bye and the four first-round matchups, based solely on ESPN's FPI.
- No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
- No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (BYE)
- No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (BYE)
- No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes
- No. 6 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls
- No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 BYU Cougars
- No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Alabama all get first-round byes. Nothing changes on that end. Georgia would host Sun Belt champion James Madison Between the Hedges in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 game. Oregon would host AAC champion South Florida at Autzen in the No. 6 vs. No. 11. Texas Tech would get BYU at home again in the No. 7 vs. No. 10. Ole Miss hosts Notre Dame in the No. 8 vs. No. 9.
Georgia has no problem with James Madison in Athens, while South Florida actually gives Oregon a scare in Eugene. Both favored teams advance, though. Texas Tech showed everyone who was watching last Saturday that the Red Raiders are the far better team than BYU in the Big 12 hiearchy. They will advance. Ole Miss uses its home-field advantage to eke a close one out over Notre Dame.
It might be all chalk here, but that does not guarantee it will be the case for the entire tournament.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
After the first round games, here would be the four matchups making up the national quarterfinals.
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Indiana would get Ole Miss in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State would pick the Orange Bowl to make Texas Tech travel to Greater Miami to face them. Texas A&M will take on Oregon in either the Cotton or Sugar Bowl, preferrably the Cotton if it were up to them. That means Georgia will have to take on Alabama in either the Cotton or Sugar Bowl. Can the Dawgs avoid the Crimson Tide in this round?
Indiana plays a more focused game and proves victorious in a close one over Ole Miss in Pasadena. Ohio State's football pedigree wins out over Texas Tech in Miami Gardens in a star-studded game. Texas A&M skull drags Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, Sugar Bowl or wherever they face the Ducks. Until it is proven otherwise, Georgia will lose to Alabama in any game played below The Mason-Dixon Line.
Yes, chalk may have prevailed again in this round of games, but that may not be the case for long.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
With only four teams left, here is who would be playing who in the national semifinals in this scenario.
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies
Top-seeded Indiana would either take the Peach Bowl, or be forced there. The Hoosiers will have to play Alabama in the Crimson Tide's home away from home in Atlanta. Not sure that is what IU will want... Ohio State would then take on another talent-laden team from Texas in back-to-back playoff games with Texas A&M coming to Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl. This is where it will get interesting...
Indiana may be undefeated at this point, the chances of them playing tight in Atlanta to an Alabama team that knows the venue so well will be problematic. Look for the Crimson Tide to win by multiple scores here. Georgia would beat them too if the Dawgs were playing them... For as fun as Texas A&M has been, Ohio State has been in the playoff end zone before. That should lead to a Buckeyes victory.
So it will be Ohio State vs. Alabama in the national title bout in this playoff bracket simulation of sorts.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
And there you have it! It is a rematch of the 2020 national title bout in the same exact venue, folks!
- College Football Playoff National Championship Game: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
This has the makings of being one of the best games in playoff history. Ohio State may be the better team, but the Buckeyes' pathway to Miami will be much more arduous. Alabama may be the underdog here, but the Crimson Tide will prevail over the Buckeyes. Ty Simpson secures his spot as the next Richard Todd for the New York Jets, while Kalen DeBoer is the fourth active head coach with a natty.
To bring this all back home to Georgia, the Bulldogs are one of only four or five teams in this playoff field who can win it all. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Texas A&M recruit well enough to sustain the body blows this tournament will provide. Indiana could be the exception, but we should remain dubious of that. Ole Miss needs a better seed and Texas Tech has a finite ceiling as a Big 12 team.
Yet again, all Georgia really needs is a scheduling break to avoid Alabama in the national quarterfinals.