Heading into Week 4 ESPN believes that Georgia and Texas are the runaway favorites to win the SEC. They give Texas a 33 percent chance to win the league and Georgia a 32 percent chance with the next closest team at 12 percent, but ESPN may not be factoring in strength of schedule as much as they should be.
Georgia and Texas' odds are essentially the same, but ESPN might be ignoring just how difficult the Longhorns' schedule is compared to Georgia's that should swing things more in UGA's favor upon further evaluation.
It's a big weekend in the SEC!
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 23, 2026
🏈 1 Texas at 14 Tennessee
🏈 4 Ole Miss at 21 Florida
🏈 23 Texas A&M at 10 LSU
🏈 19 Missouri at 24 Mississippi State
With four ranked SEC games this Saturday, this will be the most ranked games for a conference on a single day in AP Poll… pic.twitter.com/xL5R3PKaHl
Texas' odds to win the SEC are far too high for their gauntlet of a schedule
Texas deserves to be one of the favorites to win the SEC after their Week 2 victory over Ohio State. That may just be the best win in the conference so far this season, but that doesn't mean they should automatically have the best odds to win the conference.
Having one of the best teams in the SEC does not guarantee that a team will win the conference. Texas is capable of beating anyone on their schedule, but they still have to face far too many good teams this year where they could lose enough games to not even make it to the SEC title game.
Seven of Texas' final nine games are against teams currently ranked. This includes road games against No. 14 Tennessee, No. 19 Missouri, No. 10 LSU and No. 23 Texas A&M. Texas also plays a red hot Florida team who just got ranked for the first time this year and an Oklahoma team who isn't ranked but has the roster talent to stack up with anyone.
Texas would probably be favored in every game the rest of the season, but winning all nine games isn't that simple. All it could take for them to miss the SEC Championship game is two losses, and looking at their schedule that seems like a real possibility. If it's realistic for Texas to lose two more games and potentially miss the SEC title game altogether then maybe their odds to win the SEC shouldn't be this high to begin with.
Georgia's path to the SEC Championship game is not easy
Georgia has a handful of difficult games left on their schedule too, but it doesn't compare to Texas. They have to play Oklahoma this weekend who is their first true test of the season, but the Sooners have been struggling lately.
Looking at Georgia's final nine games they only play four ranked teams compared to the seven Texas will face. This includes two extremely difficult road games at Ole Miss and Alabama along with Missouri at home and Florida in Atlanta. Georgia has a much easier schedule on paper than Texas which means their chances to make it to the SEC Championship game is higher than the Longhorns.
Say Georgia and Texas both make it to Atlanta though, history says this is a game Georgia would win. Georgia and Texas have played three times since the Longhorns joined the SEC, and the Bulldogs are a perfect 3-0 which includes a win in the 2024 SEC Championship game.
Georgia and Texas likely have similar odds to win the SEC at this point in the season, but when looking at their schedules it seems like Georgia has a much better chance than Texas to make it to Atlanta. If that is true then these odds should probably be adjusted slightly in favor of UGA.
Add us as a preferred source on Google