Georgia ranked 5th in the most useless preseason indicator there is

Preseason rankings are always a blind grab-bag of futility. Nobody really knows how freshmen and incoming transfers are going to work out, and basing anything on "last year" in college football is pure unfounded conjecture.

But of all the preseason rankings and indicators, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is probably the most inane, and unfortunately, most commonly cited when it comes to ranking teams before the College Football Playoff Committee has their say.

ESPN takes a myriad of stats, facts and figures, and throws them into an algorithm blender to magically create this ranking system. By midseason, it usually levels out to being a little more accurate, but in the preseason (like most rankings) it finds new definitions of silly Bill James-esque conclusions.

What is the ESPN FPI and how is it calculated?

The stats that are fed into ESPN's algorithm aren't like most other measurables. Some of them even sound a little obscure or unquantifiable before we've had our first snap of the season. From ESPN, the core components of the FPI algorithm:

FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

• Unit Efficiency: Assesses offensive, defensive, and special teams performance by calculating the net per-play contribution to scoring margins based on down, distance, and field position (EPA).
• Opponent Adjustments: Raw EPA data is adjusted to account for the strength of the defenses and offenses faced.
• Prior Year Data & Recruiting: Early in the season, the baseline ratings rely heavily on previous years' performances and the team's roster talent, which is calculated using consensus recruiting databases (e.g., ESPN, Rivals). As the season progresses, actual game data is phased in to make up the bulk of the rating.
• Game Projections: FPI combines team ratings with external factors—such as expected home-field advantage and travel distance—to project win probabilities for individual games.
• Season Simulations: By running 20,000+ simulations of the remaining schedule, FPI aggregates individual game probabilities to forecast overall win totals, division titles, and championship chances.

Now again, midway through the season there may be some viable and essential data that can be harvested to make those rankings somewhat digestable, but in the preseason? Not a chance.

The first FPI rankings of 2026 were released, and while Georgia being ranked fifth might be pleasing to the eye, a deeper look shows that Georgia is probably being undervalued and some other teams are being...well...overinflated.

Beyond Georgia being two, maybe three spots too low, which isn't that awful, the bottom of this rankings smorgasbord is an unbelievable mess. South Carolina and Auburn being ranked in the Top 25 of anything this preseason is laughable, and it seems ESPN's computers will never stop believing in Tennessee no matter how often they're let down.

Preseason rankings are nothing more than water cooler fodder, have no meaning, and normally end up being targets for Freezing Cold Takes by the time a season ends. The last two seasons of ESPN's preseason FPI have been brutally wrong, particularly at the bottom of the list.

So, celebrating that Georgia is a "top five" team, or becoming infuriated that they are ranked behind Oregon and Texas is absurd based on past results. Because unlike past seasons, we can plainly see that ESPN's algorithm needs more than just a few tweaks.

Or, maybe just don't do it at all until Week 4 or later?

That sounds like a solution.

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