Death, taxes and betting on the Georgia Bulldogs to not cover the point spread under Kirby Smart. While it is not everything, it is something with this growing trend in the wrong direction for this national title. After having failed to cover the spread in any of their games so far this season, that could indicate the 18.5 points the Dawgs are laying at home to the Kentucky Wildcats are too many.
Even if ESPN's matchup predictor has Georgia projected to win this SEC home game 90.3 percent of the time, another game too close to comfort will play right in line with another concerning trend for the team. In addition to not covering a game at all so far this season, Georgia went 4-10 against the spread last year and 5-8-1 in 2023. The Dawgs only went 8-7 against the spread during 2022 as well.
And if we take it back to the 2021 season, Georgia only went 10-5 against the spread that year. What seems to have happened in recent years here is multi-pronged. The first is Georgia is not winning as greatly with its deep and talented roster as it should. The second is when they have a huge lead, they will let teams back in it with a back-door cover. And third, this is a trend Las Vegas has yet to realize...
But let's be totally honest with ourselves, as long as Georgia wins by one, none of this should matter.
Why Georgia has struggled to cover the point spread quite often of late
There are two things at play that everyone and their brother seems to be overlooking with Georgia when it comes to the Dawgs' inability to cover pretty much any point spread these days. The first has something to do with Georgia being a juggernaut team led by a defensive-minded head coach in Smart. Offensive-minded coaches need to score more for their egos, while Smart just wants to win.
While that may explain a bit as to why Georgia struggles to cover the point spread more often than not over the last several years, the other big factor has something to do with the men Smart entrusts on his coaching staff. Having a best friend offensive coordinator who loves to get cute with the football in Mike Bobo often limits this team's offensive production. He is a far cry from Todd Monken.
Even more concerning, the fact defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann still pretty much needs his hand held at all times 10 years into this thing at Georgia for him is borderline disgraceful. It should not matter that Smart views him a a great protege. The guy needs to be better at his job! So Georgia's combination of a defensive-minded head coach and two lousy coordinators are playing a part in this.
So to tie a bow on this, these handful of factors may play a part in causation when it comes to Georgia's struggles against the spread for essentially a half decade now. Again, this will come back to haunt Georgia later on down the line. However, Kentucky has the worst offense in the Power Four, so that should not really matter on Saturday. Just go out and win this game by multiple scores, please!
Win or lose, Las Vegas is raking in money hand over first when people are picking Georgia to cover.