It all comes down to this, well, sort of... At 11-1 (7-1) on the season, the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs will have their shot at redemption vs. the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama has an identical 7-1 SEC record as Georgia, but with the head-to-head win over the Dawgs Between the Hedges back in late September. However, they do have two losses on the year as well.
While Georgia is one of eight teams who are locks to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, along with Indiana, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, their seeding is entirely contingent on the outcome of Saturday's game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, as well as what happens in the other conference championships of note. So where will Georgia be ranked at?
For those needing a refresher, this would be the 12-team playoff field after the penultimate rankings.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0): Projected Big Ten champion
- Indiana Hoosiers (12-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up
- Georgia Bulldogs (11-1): Projected SEC champion
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1): Projected Big 12 champion
- Oregon Ducks (11-1): Projected Big Ten at-large
- Ole Miss Rebels (11-1): Projected SEC at-large
- Texas A&M Aggies (11-1): Projected SEC at-large
- Oklahoma Sooners (10-2): Projected SEC at-large
- Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2): Projected SEC runner-up
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2): Projected national independent at-large
- Virginia Cavaliers (10-2): Projected ACC champion
- Tulane Green Wave (10-2): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion
And here are the nine conference championship games of note for this college football weekend.
- Sun Belt: Troy Trojans at No. 25 James Madison Dukes (Harrisonburg, VA)
- CUSA: Kennesaw State Owls at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Jacksonville, AL)
- AAC: No. 24 North Texas Mean Green at No. 20 Tulane Green Wave (New Orleans, LA)
- Mountain West: UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos (Boise, ID)
- MAC: Miami RedHawks vs. Western Michigan Broncos (Detroit, MI)
- Big 12: No. 11 BYU Cougars vs. No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (Arlington, TX)
- SEC: No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (Atlanta, GA)
- Big Ten: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (Indianapolis, IN)
- ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers (Charlotte, NC)
Now that we know all that, here is where Georgia could be seeded with a win or a loss to Alabama.
Where will Georgia Bulldogs be seeded if they win SEC Championship?
If Georgia takes care of business and wins the rematch over Alabama in Atlanta, the Bulldogs will be the No. 2 seed. This is because no matter what happens in the Big Ten Championship Game between No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana, the loser of that title bout will fall below the Dawgs, on account of losing its conference championship. Georgia would have the same record as the loser, but a title win.
As far as is if a 12-1 Big 12 champion Texas Tech team could overtake Georgia, there is no chance in hell of that happening. This is because even though Georgia and Texas Tech would have identical records as prospective conference champions, the Red Raiders will have beaten the same team twice in one year in BYU, effectively damaging their own case to overtake Georgia. Not happening...
Overall, the winner of the Big Ten will be the No. 1 seed. If Georgia wins the SEC, it will be the No. 2 seed. As far as what Alabama could be ranked if they were to upset Georgia, the Crimson Tide could be as high as the No. 4 seed, but that seems like a shot in the dark. We will unpack that more in just a few seconds. For now, a win over Alabama by one or a million points would have Georgia as the No. 2.
Now that we know what Georgia will be ranked as an SEC champion, how far will Georgia fall if it lost?
Where could Georgia Bulldogs be seeded if they lose SEC Championship?
This is where it gets tricky... If we assume chalk everywhere else, meaning Ohio State beats Indiana and Texas Tech beats BYU, Georgia likely falls out of the top four at 11-2 and will not have a first-round bye. Ohio State would be the No. 1 seed. Texas Tech moves up to either No. 3 or even No. 2, depending on what happens to Indiana. IU still gets a top-four seed regardless. Maybe Oregon, too?
We can safely assume Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas Tech would all be seeded ahead of Georgia, as would SEC champion Alabama, who would have beaten Georgia twice in this scenario. At best, you are looking at Georgia being the No. 5 seed, but probably the No. 6, simply because the Selection Committee has Oregon at No. 5 right now. Georgia would be ranked ahead of Ole Miss to stop its fall.
Georgia would get a first-round bye with an SEC Championship Game loss. The Selection Committee would have them ranked at least one spot behind Alabama, most certainly on the other side of the bracket from them. While a No. 4 seed is possible with a title bout loss to Alabama, do not count on it. No. 5 does not seem probable, just to avoid the immediate rematch in the Sugar Bowl coming up later.
In reality, if Georgia wins the SEC, the Bulldogs will be the No. 2 seed with a bullet. If the Dawgs were to fall, they will probably fall to being the No. 6 seed, with either Alabama and Oregon being ranked No. 4 or No. 5 ahead of them. Georgia would then host either the Virginia as the ACC champion in the No. 6 vs. No. 11, or possibly the winner of the AAC between North Texas or Tulane if Duke beats UVA.
To keep it simple, a win over Alabama gets Georgia the No. 2 seed, but a loss likely has them at No. 6.