Georgia may not have played up to its lofty standard last Saturday vs. FCS Austin Peay, but there is one undeniable fact on the docket when it comes to their upcoming opponent in Tennessee. Kirby Smart has dominated in this rivarly since taking over at his alma mater in 2016. He has won his last eight games vs. the Volunteers, including all four of his meetings while going up against Josh Heupel.
Winsipedia has Georgia's eight-game winning streak over the Vols dating back to 2017 as their longest over their opponent in the history of this rivalry series. Tennessee did win nine in a row from 1989 to 1999. That was during the peak Phillip Fulmer years in Knoxville, as well as the Dawgs being down under Ray Goff and Jim Donnan. Things leveled out a bit once Mark Richt took over in 2001...
Even if Tennessee still has a great chance at upsetting Georgia at Neyland, the Dawgs are still the betting favorite to win this one on the road at -4.5. Tennessee's 2-0 may look prettier than Georgia's, but did the Dawgs' Week 1 opponent Marshall run laps after getting a win in Week 2? Syracuse sure did after not looking particularly great in the Orange's first win of the season over the UConn Huskies.
Furthermore, the games that Heupel has coached vs. Georgia have never been that particularly close.
Kirby Smart's dominance over Josh Heupel may be on display once again
While Heupel has guided the Vols to a bowl game every year since taking over, here is his UGA record.
Year | Away | Score | Home | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Georgia Bulldogs | 41 | Tennessee Volunteers | 17 |
2022 | Tennessee Volunteers | 13 | Georgia Bulldogs | 27 |
2023 | Georgia Bulldogs | 38 | Tennessee Volunteers | 10 |
2024 | Tennessee Volunteers | 17 | Georgia Bulldogs | 31 |
While Heupel is 39-15 overall and 20-12 in SEC play since taking over at Tennessee in 2021, he is 0-4 against Georgia. His Volunteers have been outscored 137-57 in those four games, losing by an average final score of Georgia 34.25, Tennessee 14.25 in those games. He is losing by on average 20 points per game to Georgia. Even more concerning, the margin of defeat is even wider when at home!
Georgia has outscored Tennessee 79-27 in the two dates in Knoxville since Heupel has taken over. We are looking at a average final score of Georgia 39.5, Tennessee 13.5 in those home dates for the Vols. They are losing by 26 points per game on average at home vs. Georgia. This is because Smart knows how to scheme up great defense. Simply put, Heupel's Air Raid is often no match for Georgia.
Will Heupel and the Vols stop the skid here soon? Potentially, but that is going to require one of two things to happen. Georgia's offense will have to be rather pedestrian, while Tennessee's offense will have to put up points in bunches vs. the vaunted Georgia secondary. This could be the year that all happens, but it has been quite strange that the Vols are giving the Dawgs a better game in Athens.
Georgia fans have every reason to be nervous about the game, but all the numbers are on their side.