Are you paying close attention? Football is defined by yardage, meaning it really is a game of inches. The thinnest of margins are what often decide who wins and who loses. In reality, there are about half-a-dozen plays or so within the context of any game where the scales can be tipped. Are you on the winning side of those handful of plays more often than not? Many of them will occur on third down...
And that is exactly what Kirby Smart and his Georgia Bulldogs defense need to be careful of vs. the Ole Miss Rebels in their rematch from the regular season in the Sugar Bowl. How good on third-down defense can this team be? When looking at the head-to-head matchups over on Game on Paper, Ole Miss' average third-down distance on offense is a huge plus for them. For UGA's defense, not at all...
When the Rebels are on offense, their average distance on third down is third-and-6.03 yards. That is the seventh-best mark in FBS. Conversely, when Georgia is on defense, its opposition is usually at third-and-6.42 yards. This is the 124th-best mark in FBS. For the record, Georgia's average third-down distance on offense is 6.87, while Ole Miss' average third-down distance on defense is 6.67.
Let's further discuss the significance of those numbers and how Smart will have to address them.
Georgia's third-down defense cannot be the reason it loses to Ole Miss
The good news is Georgia usually does show up on third and fourth-down defense. The Bulldogs allow only a 40.5-percent success rate while on defense in those spots. The Ole Miss defense is six-percent worse in stopping the opposing offense. Again, Georgia does seem to hone in during those spots more so than most teams, but man, do the Dawgs love to put themselves into a bad spot there.
Georgia is just a shade off Ole Miss' offense in terms of crucial down success rate. The big key here is the Bulldogs do not seem to punish the opposition on first or second down as much as they do over on third down. This may just be good situational football, but you cannot be giving a high-quality team like Ole Miss an extra half yard to work with on offense. It is a game of inches, and that is 18 of them...
Overall, we have seen the Georgia defense play markedly better football down the stretch, and really since this last meeting of consequence between the Bulldogs and the Rebels. In a way, maybe Georgia's newfound average third-down distance is closer to the average than being a bit of an outlier? You still have to make the stop when put in those spots, but let's try to make them harder...
For now, Georgia will have to lock on just about every play to beat Ole Miss for a second time here.