Georgia should win The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry for the ninth year in a row, but nothing is ever as it seems in the SEC. The Dawgs come in as a 3.5-point road favorite over Auburn in the Saturday night affair down on The Plains. ESPN's matchup predictor is giving Georgia a 64.5-percent chance to beat Auburn on the road, while it is giving the Tigers a 35.5-percent chance to hold serve at Jordan-Hare.
There are a few factors in play that could help Auburn out here. It is a home game at night with the season on the line for the Tigers. They cannot afford a third-straight conference loss on the season, and neither can head coach Hugh Freeze. His seat is starting to get a little toasty as the weather is starting to cool off. While Georgia may not overlook Auburn here, they do have a huge advantage.
Yes, Kirby Smart being a better head coach over Freeze at this point in time is a huge plus. However, the biggest advantage Georgia has is at the game's most important position. While Gunner Stockton has improved with every start under center at quarterback, Jackson Arnold remains an incredibly reckless and overwhelmed quarterback for Auburn. It will likely prove to be the difference in Week 7.
Let's take a look at some of the statistics that would indicate Georgia has the big advantage here.
Gunner Stockton jumps off the page as better QB over Jackson Arnold
On the season, Stockton has completed 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,047 yards, six touchdowns and one interception in five starts. As a runner, he has 39 carries for 194 yards and five rushing touchdowns. His dual-threat play-making abilities are buoying the Georgia offense in a big way at roughly the halfway point. He had to wait his time to start, but he is showing so much maturity now.
As for Arnold, he has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 846 yards and five touchdowns on the season. As a runner, he has 70 carries for 192 yards and five rushing touchdowns. While he has similar numbers to that of Stockton, they are a bit misleading. His 70 carries are a result of him rarely feeling the pressure from the pass rush. He has also thrown two more passes than Stockton has, too.
And if we really wanted to dig into it, look at the advanced statistics favoring Georgia's offense more so than Auburn's. Georgia's EPA per pass play ranks 32nd in the country, while Auburn's is a net-negative, ranking 112th in the land. This contributes to Georgia having the 34th best net EPA/play in the country, while Auburn's is a bit off their pass at 56th. It may not seem like much, but this really is.
Simply put, Georgia's offense is far more successful than Auburn's. The Dawgs can both run and throw the ball effectively within the context of Mike Bobo's offense, whereas Auburn needs the run to help offset its concerns in the passing game. Auburn may have the better defense on paper, but the opposition loves to throw it on them more so than even Georgia, but they have a great run defense.
In the end, Georgia is able to make a big play on offense roughly eight percent more often Auburn can. It may not seem like much, but little becomes big over time in these sort of situations. This is how an offense like Georgia's extends drives, while Auburn's sputters out into three yards and a cloud of punt. While Auburn may be able to pull off the upset, the data shows Georgia might blow them out.
As long as Georgia takes care of the football and has eye-discipline on defense, it shall be just fine.