While the betting line has gradually gone in Alabama's direction over the better part of the week, the smarter play here when it comes to No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia might be the over/under total. Per ESPN BET, the over/under total for this game is 52.5 points. Based on Georgia laying 2.5 points at home, we may be looking at a projected final score of Georgia 28, Alabama 25, or something like that.
Needless to say, points may not in fact be at a premium in this contest. Pamela Maldonado did a fantastic write-up for ESPN.com on why the smartest bet in this game is to take the over at 52.5. It is the very rudimentary combination of Alabama's aerial attack and Georgia's less-than-impressive secondary, as well as the Dawgs' propensity to play ball control on offense with Gunner Stockton.
Yes, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson will probably get his yards through the air. He does have a great pair of wide receivers in Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. However, the Crimson Tide have struggled to run the football all season long. They do get Jam Miller back, but pounding the rock continues to be Georgia's forte, regardless of Stockton and Zachariah Branch's overall prowess.
52.5 points might seem like a lot, but everyone should expect for this game to get into the 30s.
Does a higher point total favor Alabama or Georgia more during Week 5?
In terms of a barn-burner shootout, this might actually favor Georgia ever so slightly more. This is because we have seen the Dawgs win games both through the air and on the ground, as well as with opportunistic defense sprinkled in. Alabama has shown a proclivity for throwing the ball a ton, but since the Crimson Tide are unproven on the ground so far, it opens the door for a Georgia comeback.
This is not the most decided advantage for Georgia, mostly because the Dawgs will give up points to a team that knows what it is doing through the air. Georgia may be able to play ball-control and sit on the football in the fourth quarter. However, the defense has not exactly been stellar in the back-end thus far. There may be possessions late in the game where Alabama might be able to connect on one.
Overall, the good parts of both of these offenses are just too skilled to be totally shut down by these two underperforming defenses. Truth be told, this game is not likely going to be a blowout in either direction. Last year's meeting went down to the wire. So did the 2023 SEC Championship Game and the 2021 National Championship Game. This game feels like it might come down to one possession.
For now, do not be shocked of both teams' point totals exceed 30 points, as the over cashes in easily.