2024 Week 1 12-team College Football Playoff prediction

After preseason favorite Florida State fell to Georgia Tech in Week 0, Clemson looked to many to be the strongest team in the ACC, but in Week 1, Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs proved that wrong. Georgia leaned on Clemson through the first half, going into the break with a 6-0 lead that felt insurmountable, and in the second half, the damn finally broke leading to a 34-3 demolition of Dabo Swinney. 

Georgia cemented its place atop college football with the win, but it didn’t leave the ACC without a real College Football Playoff contender. While the conference may only get one team into the 12-team CFP, that one team might be as scary as any after Cam Ward and the Miami Hurricanes waltzed into The Swamp and left with a 41-17 win. 

Then, on Sunday night, the Big Ten and the SEC finally clashed in a ranked contest. No. 23 USC with a revamped defense held LSU to just 20 points and executed a flawless two-minute drill behind first-year starting quarterback Miller Moss. Running back Woody Marks capped the drive with a game-winning touchdown with eight seconds remaining and Lincoln Riley’s redshirt junior quarterback finished with 378 yards and a touchdown through the air. 

If USC and Penn State are national title contenders, then the Big Ten could be deeper, but the SEC has more high-quality firepower at the top. For now, I’m predicting both conferences to get four teams into the 12-team CFP. 

The only team to drop out of my rankings was my dark horse from the ACC, Virginia Tech. I have a rule about teams that start their season with a loss to Vanderbilt as a two-touchdown favorite on the road, they just can’t make the CFP, and I don’t care how many teams they expand it to. USC will replace the Hokies for now and maybe for good with a fairly favorable schedule. 

The other big riser was Notre Dame, up from a speculative No. 8 to a resounding No. 5. I’d be gobsmacked if the Fighting Irish relinquish that spot at any point this season. Notre Dame’s administration essentially set up the entire 12-team CFP to earn themselves the No. 5 seed for a home playoff game, almost always against the best G5 champ, and then a favorable neutral site matchup with the worst of the Power 4 champs.

Marcus Freeman's team will be favored in every game the rest of the game with only two more true road contests after bullying Texas A&M in College Station. There's no team I'm more confident will be in the CFP at the end of the year than the Irish.