2024 Week 5 12-team College Football Playoff prediction

In Week 5, we began to learn just how good the best teams in the SEC are. The answer, Alabama might just be the best team in the country. The Crimson Tide scored on their first four possessions in a top 5 matchup against Georgia and held off a furious comeback from Carson Beck and the Bulldogs. With their 41-34 win, Alabama jumped to No. 1 in the AP Poll, overtaking the Texas Longhorns and it sure looks like Kalen DeBoer will be heading to back-to-back College Football Playoffs with two different programs. 

Even with a loss, Georgia is far from out of it. The first half couldn’t have gone worse and Kirby Smart’s team still had a chance to win in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs have opportunities to atone for this loss on their schedule with trips to face Texas and Ole Miss and a visit from Tennessee upcoming. 

With Georgia's loss to Alabama, I'll slide them down to No. 6 in the CFP prediction. In a head-to-head matchup, which we'll get later this year, I'd pick the Bulldogs over the Longhorns, but I'd take the Vols, to beat Georgia, even in Athens. That means Texas has to slide, and Tennessee gets to climb.

Coming into the year, there were six SEC teams in the CFP picture, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Tennessee, but after five weeks, a clear top four has emerged. Missouri is still at No. 9 in the country, but the Tigers don’t appear to be a threat to win the conference, and neither is Ole Miss after the Rebels fell to Kentucky 20-17 in Oxford. 

The SEC is going to get four teams, and in my opinion, those four will be Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas, now it’s just a matter of which order that group finishes within the CFP top 12. 

Here’s a look at how I expect it to shake out after Week 5. 

Elsewhere in the country, Miami narrowly escaped a scare from Virginia Tech and even needed a controversial replay to overturn the Hokie’s game-winning hail-mary as time expired. I’ve had the Hurricanes locked in as my ACC champs all season, and I’m not getting off that now, but Clemson is a team to keep an eye on even after their Week 1 loss to Georgia. 

In the Big 12, all the top contenders have a loss. In Week 4, Utah knocked off Oklahoma State, and in Week 5 Kansas State ended Mike Gundy’s CFP hopes with a 42-20 blowout in Manhattan, Kansas. The Wildcats needed that bounce-back after a loss to BYU and that win was encouraging, but not enough for me to put the Wildcats back into the No. 4 spot in the playoff, even after Utah lost 23-10 to Arizona. 

Kyle Whittingham is the best coach in the conference, so even with his quarterback Cam Rising still out with a hand injury, I’ll back the Utes in the Big 12. Rising has to come back at some point and when he does, the Whittingham’s team will be more reliable than K-State with sporadic sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson.