In Week 5, the Georgia Bulldogs suffered their first regular season loss since the 2020 season. It broke a streak of 42-straight regular season wins for Kirby Smart’s program and in coming off that 41-34 loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs will host another team from Alabama. The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry will have its 129th entry into the record books on Saturday afternoon at Sanford Stadium.
Even after the loss, Georgia only dropped to No. 5 in the country at 3-1 and still has national title aspirations in the 12-team College Football Playoff era. Auburn at 2-3, on the other hand, is facing more existential challenges to its program. Hugh Freeze has begun restocking the roster with high-quality SEC-caliber talent, but he whiffed at quarterback bringing back Payton Thorne as his starter this offseason, and if things don’t get better, the fanbase could tire of the former Ole Miss head coach in a hurry.
Don’t expect things to turn around for the Tigers this weekend. The sportsbooks certainly don’t. Let’s check out the odds for this SEC rivalry.
Auburn vs. Georgia odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Auburn +1280
- Georgia -3448
Spread
- Auburn +24.5 (-105)
- Georgia -24.5 (-115)
Total
- 52.5 (over -110/under -110)
Auburn vs. Georgia prediction
Auburn is 2-3 with a head coach who is trying to stave off questions about the direction of the program in his second season at the helm while Georgia is 3-1, ranked No. 5 in the country, and potentially contending for its third national championship in four years. Yet, both teams are trying to solve a similar problem coming off a loss in Week 5.
Auburn thoroughly outplayed Oklahoma at home last week and still managed to lose 27-21 because Hugh Freeze cannot find a quarterback without a turnover addiction. Payton Thorne finished the game 21/32 for 338 yards and three touchdowns and the Tigers outgained the Sooners, with freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. 482-291, but up 21-16 with just over four minutes remaining in the game, Thorne threw a back-breaking interception that was returned 63-yards for a touchdown.
On the other side, Georgia mounted a massive comeback against Alabama after heading into halftime down 30-7, but Carson Beck turned the ball over twice in the second half, after throwing two interceptions in the first half, and despite throwing for over 400 yards, the Bulldogs just couldn’t overcome his sloppy play.
Beck was credited with six turnover-worthy plays in Week 5, four more than his previous single-game career high, so if I’m banking on a team to solve their turnover woes, it's Georgia with a fifth-year quarterback who threw for nearly 4,000 yards a season ago.
Though, more than expecting Georgia to bounce back and win, I’m expecting offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to recede into his shell after the type of roller-coaster performance that his typically conservative play-calling desperately tries to protect against. Bobo and Kirby Smart do not want to play 41-34 football games, so they’ll lean much more heavily on the run game which will stifle the offense and lead to a low-scoring affair.
Georgia is 46th in the country in rushing success rate and 51st in yards per rush. Trevor Etienne is a useful player in the backfield, and freshman Nate Frazer impressed in Week 1, but has been phased out of the offense. Gone are the days of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel or even D’Andre Swift or Zamir White.
If Georgia wants to run the ball, it can do it well enough to lean on Auburn, a program Freeze is still infusing with talent after some very thin years under Bryan Harsin. But beating elite SEC opponents or covering a 3+ touchdown spread in any conference game with that strategy just isn’t in the cards.
I’ll predict a 28-12 win for the Bulldogs.