Calculating Georgia football wins needed for College Football at-large bid

The the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, navigating an SEC schedule got even tougher this season, but luckily, Georgia has more leeway with the expanded CFP.
Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart
Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart / Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY

After back-to-back national titles, Georgia came one win short of another bid to the College Football Playoff. Since Kirby Smart took over the Bulldogs have made the four-team CFP three times and have needed at least 12 wins each time. 

Yet, even last season 12 wasn’t enough, so with an expanded 12-team playoff, it will be much easier for Smart to lead Georgia to the postseason with a chance to win his third national championship. 

The SEC is already the toughest conference, but with the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, the schedule is even harder. According to a graphic from Kelley Ford, of, Georgia only needs 9 wins to be in the CFP conversation. 

Where will 9 wins come from for Georgia in 2024

Nine wins should be a given for Georgia, but the schedule is very tough this season. Still, there are three wins on the schedule that are mostly preordained:

  • vs. Tennessee Tech
  • vs. Mississippi State
  • vs. UMass

The next four will be a little bit tougher, but as the favorites to win the SEC and the national title, Georgia should cruise against these three conference foes and one non-conference rivalry: 

  • at Kentucky
  • vs. Auburn
  • vs. Florida (neutral)
  • vs. Georgia Tech

That has the Bulldogs at seven victories so the next two would put Georgia firmly in the conversation for the CFP:

  • vs. Clemson (neutral)
  • vs. Tennessee

The remaining games on the schedule will be the toughest. Behind Florida, Georgia has the most difficult schedule in the country including road trips to Tuscaloosa, Austin, and Oxford.