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Power ranking Georgia Bulldogs' best paths to College Football Playoff national title

It all starts with the Georgia Bulldogs avenging last season's Sugar Bowl loss this time around.
ByJohn Buhler|
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Georgia Bulldogs | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

And then there were eight... After last weekend's delightful first round of the College Football Playoff, we have our four national quarterfinals matchups all set. No. 1 Indiana will face No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, No. 2 Ohio State will take on No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl, No. 3 Georgia draws No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, and No. 4 Texas Tech has No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl. Got it? Good.

At this stage of the game, all eight teams left in the playoff field have some semblance of hope of winning a national title. Georgia finds itself in a group of three-to-five teams with a realistic shot at it. While the other three-to-five may beg to differ that they belong with the rest, that is why we play these playoff games. For now, Georgia needs to win three games to be crowned national champions.

Where it stands right now, these are the only eight pathways to a national championship for Georgia.

  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  • No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)

No. 3 Georgia will obviously face No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day evening. Should they advance, they will play the winner of the Cotton Bowl between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 10 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. If Georgia wins the national semifinal in Greater Phoenix, the Dawgs will draw either No. 1 Indiana, No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 5 Oregon, or No. 9 Alabama in the national title bout over in Miami.

Now that we know of the eight possible paths, let's first break it down by the easiest to the hardest...

Georgia Bulldogs' College Football Playoff path: Easiest to hardest

From easiest to hardest, here is how the eight possible paths could conceivably stack up for UGA.

  1. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  2. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  3. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)
  4. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)
  5. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  6. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  7. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)
  8. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)

Georgia is a sizable favorite to beat Ole Miss to advance to the Fiesta Bowl. Of the two teams Georgia could face in the Fiesta Bowl, the Dawgs would obviously prefer Miami over Ohio State. Some might argue that the winner of a potential Georgia-Ohio State matchup may go on to win this year's national championship, as there are still some major reservations about Indiana and its side of the bracket...

As far as the order of who could come out of the Indiana side of the bracket, the Hoosiers are definitely the toughest matchup. IU is the only undefeated team left. While you could sort Alabama, Oregon, or Texas Teach into really any order, beating the same team twice in a year is so hard. A third game with Alabama is scary. As for Oregon and Texas Tech, the Ducks have made the playoff before.

Now that we know the perceived difficulty of every path, let's look at what are the most likely to occur.

Georgia Bulldogs' College Football Playoff path: Least likely to most likely

Based on the overall likelihood of each path manifesting, let's go from least likely to most likely here.

  1. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)
  2. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  3. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  4. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)
  5. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 9 Alabama (CFPNCG)
  6. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 4 Texas Tech (CFPNCG)
  7. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 5 Oregon (CFPNCG)
  8. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl), No. 2 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), No. 1 Indiana (CFPNCG)

Of course, Georgia gets Ole Miss next up, no matter what. Miami is a huge underdog to Ohio State, so any path involving the Hurricanes is not overly likely. Georgia may have history with Alabama, but this is not the same Crimson Tide team from yesteryear. Winning another playoff game would be a huge deal for them in their current form. As for the other three, Indiana has already beaten Oregon before...

So we are looking at Georgia probably playing Indiana in the national championship, following a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss and a Fiesta Bowl victory over Ohio State. The hardest path to a national championship for Georgia is also the most likely one. It should be expected because that is the nature of going primarily chalk, relatively speaking. Keep in mind that Georgia is the No. 3 seed in all of this...

After seeing difficulty and likelihood of paths put before us, what does any of it really mean for UGA?

Conclusions after seeing Georgia Bulldogs' eight possible CFP pathways

Up to this point, we have seen two lower-seeded teams advance in this tournament. No. 9 Alabama got the best of No. 8 Oklahoma in their rematch from the regular season. No. 10 Miami thwarted a discombobulated No. 7 Texas A&M squad in what will forever be known as the Notre Dame Bowl. Upsets are a part of the playoff, but of the seven games we have left, maybe we get ... three more?

In the event that Georgia runs the gauntlet in a mostly chalk playoff field with wins over Ole Miss, Ohio State, and Indiana, maybe that is all will be getting? On Indiana's side of the bracket, maybe Oregon beats Texas Tech to get us to three? You get it, right? Regardless, Georgia fans should expect the hardest pathway forward to be the most likely. If Georgia is to win it all, the Dawgs will have earned it.

Ultimately, Georgia is in a grouping with Indiana and Ohio State as the three most likely candidates to win this year's playoff. Oregon and Texas Tech are in that next group of they could, but it is probably not likely. They have the talent, but are they steady enough to conceivably run the gauntlet? At this time, it will be a tough road to hoe for Alabama, Miami, or Ole Miss to win three more playoff games...

If Georgia were to somehow avoid playing Ohio State and Indiana back-to-back, it increases its odds.

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