You may have all the resources at your disposal. You may have more talent than the other team you are taking on. However, in the game of football, coaching will always matter. In the day and age of the College Football Playoff, only two types of head coaches can realistically win the whole thing. You either need to develop into being a CEO-type, or be a defensive-minded guy who loves to recruit...
Entering the quarterfinals of this year's playoff, only Kirby Smart and Ryan Day have won national championships of the remaining candidates. Kalen DeBoer has played for one at his previous job, while Curt Cignetti and Dan Lanning led their teams to the playoff last year. As for Mario Cristobal, Pete Golding, and Joey McGuire this year is their first rodeo in the playoff. McGuire has yet to play.
So what we are going to do today is look at the eight remaining head coaches and effectively power rank them. If Georgia wins, it will be Smart's third national title at the helm of the Dawgs. Should Ohio State repeat, the Ryan Day will have won back-to-back championships. If any of the other six coaches lead the last ones standing, they will then join Day, Smart, and Clemson's Dabo Swinney in rarified air.
Without further ado, let's power rank the coaches to see what we are working with the rest of the way.
8. Ole Miss Rebels head coach Pete Golding
This is not about being mean, but rather the truth of the situation at hand. Although Pete Golding helped guide the Ole Miss Rebels to their first playoff victory to date last week vs. Tulane, Ole Miss was going to beat Tulane anyway. Jon Sumrall was on his way out in New Orleans, as he is now in charge of Florida. Golding was promoted from within to take over for Lane Kiffin who left for LSU.
In time, Golding may prove to be an excellent coach. Heck, he might even be the perfect fit for Ole Miss in its current state and form. That being said, can we reasonably expect him to get the best of Kirby Smart on New Year's Day? What about Ryan Day in the Fiesta Bowl or even Curt Cignetti in the national championship? Ole Miss is not a serious national championship contender because of him.
Golding is being put into an impossible situation, but he and Ole Miss will have to make the best of it...
7. Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal
No head coach can do more good for his reputation that is still in the playoff than Mario Cristobal. While he has done a great job of getting his alma mater back to the status of a national contender, he is consistently terrible with clock management. More importantly, he is the ultimate CEO type, but that does not work in his favor. He is a line coach and a recruiter. Cristobal just lets the game happen...
While he does seem to have two excellent coordinators in Shannon Dawson and Cory Hetherman, not being overly proficient on either side of the ball has gotten Cristobal into trouble before. However, he does speak well in front of a microphone and is a fantastic representative of what Miami is building. If Cristobal is going to have Miami advancing, it will be because his EQ is now off the charts.
Unfortunately, he is going to have to out-scheme the likes of Ryan Day and Kirby Smart to get there.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire
At this stage of the game, only one head coach left in the College Football Playoff field has yet to coach a game in this tournament in his career. That would be Joey McGuire of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Although he only has to win three games in a row in playoff to win a national championship, it remains to be seen if he is ready for the level up in competition he will be facing in the coming days.
Right now, McGuire is going to have to lean on Shiel Wood's outstanding defense to keep this game low-scoring enough to where Texas Tech can win multiple playoff games. It could definitely beat Oregon in the Orange Bowl. As far as getting past Indiana in the Peach Bowl, that is a different story. The same principle applies to if it were to reach the national title bout to play Georgia or Ohio State.
McGuire has made it a career of proving everyone wrong, but this may be too tough of a road to hoe.
5. Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning
We have arrived at a fairly rudimentary line of demarcation here. Dan Lanning is the first head coach on this list who feels like he is capable of winning a national championship at this time. Oregon was the No. 1 overall seed in last year's tournament before falling to pieces almost immediately out of the gate vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks have the talent to go all the way, but are they steady?
That is the real question we have to ask ourselves about Lanning's team right now. He has the players, the depth, and the coaching chops to get it done. However, he is about to lose both of his two star coordinators to other Power Four posts as soon as this season comes to an end. Will Stein will be taking over at Kentucky, while Tosh Lupoi will be in charge of his alma mater of Cal. This matters a ton!
Oregon has already won one playoff game, but asking to win three more in the south is impossible.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer
If not for the tough hole they have dug themselves in, Alabama does have a head coach capable of winning a national title this year. Winning on the road at Oklahoma to avenge an earlier loss at home is a huge step in the right direction. However, Alabama has a notoriously one-dimensional offense. They have not been able to run the football effectively since Week 1. Not sure that they can overcome that.
That being said, Kalen DeBoer now has a pair of playoff wins under his belt. He took the Washington Huskies to the national championship game only two years ago before replacing Nick Saban at Alabama. From a talent perspective, Alabama can hang with seemingly anyone in the country. Unfortunately, they can play a little too loose at time for their own good, and it will cost them dearly.
DeBoer is a strong head coach, but asking him to win three more games with this year's team is hard.
3. Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti
At this time, only three ative FBS head coaches have won a College Football Playoff before. Dabo Swinney has won it twice at Clemson in 2016 and 2018. Kirby Smart went back-to-back in 2021 and 2022. Ryan Day is the most recent head coach to do it last year at Ohio State. One could argue that Curt Cignetti is the best head coach in college football right now who has not won a national title yet.
He has been on a meteoric rise in the coaching profession the last few years. Cignetti was a dynamo previously at James Madison, prior to coming to Indiana and doing unprecedented things there in Bloomington. Indiana is well-coached enough and steady enough to win the playoff, but the Hoosiers may not have the depth to win three win-or-go-home games in a row to claim its first national title.
Everything that Indiana and Cignetti have done has been against the grain, so do not count them out.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day
While you can try to make an argument of these last two coaches, we all know the truth. Ryan Day is a great head coach, but he is not yet an all-timer. He has lost way too many games vs. Michigan. More importantly, he is not the sport's greatest in-game adjustor. Day does a great job of game-planning thorughout the week and empowering his guys to make a difference, but mid-game tweaks hurt him.
That being said, he is three wins away from repeating as College Football Playoff National Champions. There has only been one 12-team format, and Day won it as a No. 8 seed. Even stranger, if Day were to beat Miami, Georgia, and likely Indiana in succession, he will have his claim as the greatest head coach in the sport, as he will have beaten Cristobal, Smart, and Cignetti all in a row.
To date, no Ohio State team has ever repeated as national champions, but this one has a chance to.
1. Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart
There can only be one, and that is Kirby Smart. Day and Cignetti may not be that far off his trail, but Smart is great at a few things and the best in the business at others. Smart is a savvy defensive mind and excellent recruiter. He knows how to empower his staff and get the best out of his players. His separating factors come from in-game adjustments and being a master motivator and manipulator.
His will to win is unrivaled. Smart has already won two national titles at his alma mater. Georgia is one of three teams who stand a very great shot at it this year. Should he beat Day and Cignetti after skating past Ole Miss, Smart will undoubtedly be the best head coach in college football. He will have defeated his two most worthy adversaries in a row. The best part is we all know that he can do this.
Smart is probably the biggest reason why Georgia can win this year's national title as the No. 3 seed.