Could Texas upset Georgia on Saturday night Between the Hedges? It is certainly within the realm of possibility. According to ESPN Bet, No. 5 Georgia will be laying 5.5 points at home to visiting No. 10 Texas. The point spread has dropped down from its opening of 6.5. ESPN Analytics gives Georgia a 59.8 percent chance to win the game, while Texas is getting only a 40.2 percent chance on the road.
While it may be cool for some people to put their hard-earned money on Texas, there is something at play most people are not paying close enough attention to. That would be how these two SEC playoff contenders have fared vs. common opponents. Not that ESPN's Paul Finebaum said as much, but it did play a part in him giving Texas only a "slight to moderate" chance of upsetting Georgia in Week 12.
Finebaum's response to ESPN's Matt Barrie on if Texas can upset Georgia opened up a can of worms.
"Slight to moderate ... It's not an impossibility because Georgia has been so inconsistent, especially in the first half. Now Saturday against Mississippi State, they finally got unleashed. They played their best game of the season, which really helped them immensely. Texas has also been on the brink all season long, coming so close in games at Mississippi State in overtime, Kentucky in overtime. So the fact that they're still alive is pretty remarkable."
Let's now take a look at how Georgia and Texas have done against the same trio of SEC opponents
Common opponents point unwinds any real thought of a Texas upset bid
So for those who need to be reminded, here are three common opponents Georgia and Texas share.
- Florida Gators
- Kentucky Wildcats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs
Having three common opponents in an eight-game SEC schedule is normal, but look at the results...
Here is how Georgia performed against Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State this college season.
Date | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|
Oct. 4 | vs. Kentucky Wildcats (Athens, GA) | W, 35-14 |
Nov. 1 | vs. Florida Gators (Jacksonvile, FL) | W, 24-20 |
Nov. 8 | at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Starkville, MS) | W, 41-21 |
And here is how Texas performed against Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State this college season.
Date | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|
Oct. 4 | at Florida Gators (Gainesville, FL) | L, 29-21 |
Oct. 18 | at Kentucky Wildcats (Lexington, KY) | W, 16-13 OT |
Oct. 25 | at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Starkville, MS) | W, 45-28 OT |
Texas has had to play all three of those teams on the road, but the results are staggeringly bad here...
Although winning in Lexington is never as easy as it seems, especially at night, Georgia handled the Wildcats in their 21-point home victory, when compared to Texas' three-point road win in overtime. It may not have been Georgia's best game to date, but the Dawgs still won comfortably. Had it not been for Bush Hamdan being arguably the worst offensive coordinator in the Power Four, Kentucky wins it.
The Florida comparison has Georgia winning by four in neutral-site Jacksonville, with Texas falling by eight on the road in Gainesville. Had Gunner Stockton decided to really rub it in Florida's face, Georgia could have won by 11 points. While Georgia has no experience playing at Ben Hill Griffin, the game down in Jacksonville is never for the faint of heart. This was the only rivalry game played of these six...
And for Mississippi State, this might be our first truly great comparison here. Georgia clobbered Mississippi State in regulation. The 21-point final score difference does not do it justice. Georgia was in complete control of that game from the start. Texas needed overtime in Starkville to avoid being eliminated from the playoff. A seven-point victory and an overtime stop is why they got that SEC win.
Overall, we are talking about Georgia being 14 points better than Texas vs. Mississippi State, 18 points better than Texas vs. Kentucky, and a win and 12 points better than Texas vs. Florida. If we wanted to be honest and give Georgia seven more points because of Stockton's decision to take a knee, Georgia could have beaten Florida by 11 points, making it a 19-point difference than Texas.
In the end, every game is different, but the data speaks for itself. Based on the three common opponents Georgia and Texas share, Georgia is won win better and a combined 44 points than Texas vs. the bottom of the barrel of the SEC. Had Stockton had decided to rub it in vs. Florida, Georgia would be 51 points and a win over Florida better than Texas. It all has to add up at some point, right?
You can take Texas to cover if you want, but Georgia is more comfortable at being uncomfortable.