The second annual bye could not be coming at a better time. Georgia enters its second bye week before The Cocktail Party in Jacksonville with a 6-1 overall record, a 4-1 mark in SEC play, and two wins over two top-25 teams in Tennessee and Ole Miss. Their only loss on the season came at home by three points to arch nemesis Alabama. Against all odds, Georgia is still looking like a playoff team.
So what we are going to do today is put forth a bit of a primer, as to what is coming down the track for the Dawgs, and what they need to do to make the playoff. Can this team still win the SEC? How far can it go if it were to make the playoff? Who are the Dawgs' most likely first-round opponents and what might their path to Miami be should they want to just win the whole thing anyway? Let's find out now!
Let's start with the most important data we have available, which is ESPN's FPI playoff percentages.
Georgia Bulldogs' playoff percentages heading into the second bye week
Heading into Week 9, Georgia has the fifth-best playoff percentage chance of any team in the county at 82.2 percent. Only Ohio State (96.6), Indiana (94.4), Alabama (90.4) and Texas A&M (85.2) have better marks. Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M are one of six teams who have not lost yet. Alabama may have an increasingly bad loss to Florida State, but the Crimson Tide did beat the Dawgs by three.
Not far off the Dawgs' trail are the Oregon Ducks at 76.3 percent. After that, we see a percipitous drop off to BYU at 52.1 percent. Everybody else in the country has less than a 50-percent of making the playoff. Barring something unforeseen, the top six teams in the country are all varying levels of locks to make the playoff. Georgia is in line to get a first-round home game, maybe a first-round bye?
This team has to go 10-2 to make it in, but let's take a look at its remaining games the rest of the way.
What must happen for Georgia Bulldogs to make College Football Playoff
At 10-2 or better, Georgia should be able to make the 12-team field as at least an SEC at-large team. They have five games left: vs. Florida in Jacksonville, at Mississippi State, home vs. Texas, home vs. Charlotte, and vs. Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. So all that is left is two true home games, one true road game, and two neutral-site affairs vs. two of the team's biggest rivals.
In terms of likelihood of loss, Georgia's two toughest opponents left are Texas at home and vs. Georgia Tech in Atlanta. The Dawgs beat both a year ago. While vs. Florida in Jacksonville and at Mississippi State are conference games, those are more likely wins than even the two other games. Charlotte is a gimme at home on cupcake week. Georgia can afford a loss to Texas or Georgia Tech.
While a loss to Georgia Tech will not impact if Georgia can still win the SEC, can the Dawgs still win it?
How Georgia Bulldogs can still win the SEC by making it back to Atlanta
Right now, Georgia is 4-1 in SEC play. Alabama and Texas A&M are both 4-0 in league play. Alabama beat Georgia head-to-head, while Texas A&M does not play Georgia this year. Besides Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt only have one conference loss. Georgia has already beaten Ole Miss. The only other team they will play among that group this year will be Texas at home.
If Georgia goes 7-1 in SEC play, there are no guarantees the Dawgs will even make it to the SEC Championship. Alabama and Texas A&M have not lost a league game. Georgia needs for Alabama to lose two league games to get ahead of them, as its only loss came in the non-conference to Florida State. Texas A&M may need to lose once, maybe twice, just to avoid any complicated tiebreakers...
Right now, UGA has the second best odds to win the SEC at 19.1 percent, way behind Alabama (57.9).
What Georgia must avoid to prevent falling out of 12-team playoff mix
Again, Georgia can afford one more loss on the season, but probably not two. While they have played a challenging schedule, it cannot have three top-25 losses, when compared to its two top-25 wins. Simply put, Georgia needs to beat either Georgia Tech or Texas, in addition to not dropping another game to Florida or Mississippi State in league play, or even falling to Charlotte in the non-conference.
A 11-1 (7-1) Georgia team will make the playoff. So will a 10-2 (7-1) or a 10-2 (6-2) team, regardless of where the second loss comes from, outside of an embarrassing home defeat to Charlotte... As for a 9-3 team, that will not be enough, even if those two losses were to Texas and Georgia Tech. In that scenario, Georgia would be bargaining and begging to get in like Alabama's three-loss 2024 team.
The clear line of demarcation is 10-2. That gets them in. 9-3 will not. 11-1 might get Georgia a bye...
Georgia Bulldogs' likely first-round opponents if they make the playoff
This all really comes down to if Georgia finishes the season at 11-1 or 10-2. If Georgia wins out to be 11-1, the Dawgs will be at worst the No. 6 seed, probably the No. 5 seed, and possibly a top-four seed. A top-four seed gets them a bye. Being the No. 5 has the No. 12 seed come to Athens, the same applies to the No. 11 as the No. 6 seed. We are looking at a Group of Five or last team in here.
Your most likely Group of Five winner right now appears to be South Florida. Other teams such as Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane or UNLV could be that team. If we are looking at the last team in, it may be the Big 12 champion/runner-up, the ACC runner-up or another SEC at-large team. There are 12 or so teams that could check the box, even Notre Dame...
As far as if Georgia goes 10-2 to get in, there are probably no better than the No. 7 seed, but no worse than the No. 10 seed. A home game would occur as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, but the Dawgs would have to play on the road as the No. 9 or No. 10 seed. They could be playing teams like BYU, Miami, Oregon or Texas Tech in that range, as well as potential rematches with Ole Miss or Texas, etc.
We clearly need a few more weeks before Georgia's likeliest first-round opponent to manifest itself.
Georgia Bulldogs' likely path to national championship game appearance
At this time, Georgia is the projected No. 5 seed. The only way the Dawgs can get the No. 1 seed is if they win out, beat Alabama in the SEC Championship, and there be some chaos atop the Big Ten. It could happen, but let's not count on it. If Georgia wins the SEC, the Dawgs will get a first-round bye. Georgia would likely take the Sugar Bowl first, Orange Bowl second, Cotton third, and the Rose fourth.
In either the Sugar or Orange Bowl, Georgia may face a top-eight team in the country who just beat whomever at home. As far as the national semifinal, Georgia would take the Peach Bowl at all costs, as opposed to the Fiesta Bowl. A win there gets them to Miami for the national championship. If all goes according to plan, Georgia may not have to leave the southeast to win their next national title.
In the event that Georgia does not get a first-round bye, they will either have to beat a lesser team at home, or upset a superior one on the road in the first round. Keep in mind that the best SEC team will try to take the Sugar Bowl first, the best Big Ten team will attempt to grab the Rose Bowl, and the best ACC team will want the Orange Bowl, even though the ACC and Big Ten have some connection to it...
There are pathways where Georgia could get a first-round bye or not, play at home or on the road in the first round or not. In a best-case scenario, they will either play lesser opponents or in advantageous bowl games such as the Sugar or Orange Bowls in the quarterfinals or the Peach Bowl in the semis. Tougher venues would be the Cotton or Rose Bowl at first, followed by the Fiesta Bowl.
Until we get seeding, the pathway to Miami Gardens is too foggy to conceivably navigate just yet...