Georgia football: Updated best and worst case scenarios for 2017

We are now just one week away from the start of the 2017 Georgia football season.

The moment we’ve been waiting almost nine months for is almost here. In just seven days, Georgia football will be kicking off the 2017 season between the hedges against Appalachian State.

The preseason magazine’s like Athlon and Lindy’s have given their predictions for Georgia’s record. The media at SEC Media Days named the Dawgs as their favorite to win the SEC East. The Coaches and Associated Press Polls have both ranked Georgia in the top 20.

Clearly, most of the media is expecting Georgia to have some degree of success in 2017. But what about a more scientific prediction for Georgia this season. That’s how I make my predictions. I look at the schedule, pick games Georgia should win, games they shouldn’t, and toss ups.

The best case scenario, Georgia wins all the toss ups. Worst case, the Bulldogs lose all the toss ups. And the final prediction is a hybrid of both scenarios. Just like how I predicted the season in the spring as well as the predictions I made for the basketball team.

Georgia can definitely go undefeated in 2017. There’s not a game on the schedule that you can look at and say Georgia should lose. There are a lot of toss ups, but that’s normally the case in the SEC.

2017 Georgia football schedule

9/2 vs. Appalachian State WIN
9/9 at. Notre Dame WIN
9/16 vs. Samford WIN
9/23 vs. Mississippi State WIN
9/30 at. Tennessee WIN
10/7 at. Vanderbilt TOSS UP
10/14 vs. Missouri TOSS UP
10/28 @. Florida TOSS UP
11/4 vs. South Carolina TOSS UP
11/11 at. Auburn TOSS UP
11/18 vs. Kentucky WIN
11/25 at. Georgia Tech WIN

First off, what kind of world do we live in where we have to be more concerned about Vanderbilt than Tennessee. But that’s the reality of SEC football in 2017. The Volunteers lost a lot of good players. And Butch Jones’ status as head coach is shaky going into 2017 to say the least. As always they can’t be overlooked, but Georgia is the superior team.

Vanderbilt however is just dangerous. They sport on of the conferences best defenses and return an elite running back in Ralph Webb. Containing Webb should be enough to defeat the Commodores, but their defense will keep them in every game.

As you can see, Georgia should begin the year 5-0. Appalachian State isn’t going to sneak up on Georgia or anybody for that matter. They’ve earned the respect of everyone in the nation. But with that respect comes the issue of never being overlooked. Plus, Georgia’s defense is built to play against a plethora of offenses.

Notre Dame also can’t be overlooked and the fact that it’s in South Bend makes this a rare, long, non-conference road trip for Georgia. The Fighting Irish will be hyped and excited for this game. But they’re still a team that went 4-8 in 2016 and isn’t predicted to be much better in 2017.

The Bulldogs of Samford and Mississippi State should be dispatched with relative ease. Neither have the talent to hang with Georgia. Although you can’t put anything past Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen.

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The next five games will be the toughest. After Webb and the Commodores, Georgia plays Drew Lock and the Missouri Tigers who also feature a pretty good defense. Georgia probably should win that game at home, but Missouri is too good to treat as a definite “win”.

Then comes the meeting in Jacksonville against Florida for what may be the de-facto SEC East Championship game. Right now, there are way more questions that answers on Florida. How consistent will quarterback play be? Will the defense remain top-notch? And can they go a week without a player getting in trouble?

But when you haven’t beaten a team in three years and have only defeated them six times since 1990, you can’t ever treat a game with them as a sure-fire victory.

The South Carolina game will be similar to the Missouri game. They also field a good defense with an equally good quarterback on offense. But, if Georgia defeats Florida in what would be an emotional win, a letdown may happen against the Gamecocks a week later.

Finally , Georgia plays Auburn who many think can win the SEC West. But like Florida, there are a lot of questions surrounding them. Will they end up being one-hit wonders on defense? Is Jarrett Stidham really the answer at quarterback? Both will decide their fate this year. But for right now, we’ll assume they’re the real deal.

The Bulldogs close the regular season with a home game against Kentucky. They’re similar to Vandy, Missouri and South Carolina on offense, but they don’t have as good of a defense. So issues that will keep those games close, at least initially, will not be present against the Wildcats.

Then Georgia Tech who should be a toss-up, but the Bulldogs haven’t lost in Bobby Dodd since 1999 and haven’t lost consecutive games against Tech since 1998-2000. Plus Nick Chubb really wants to squash the small, yellow clad species of wasps from Atlanta.

Scenarios and predictions

Best Case Scenario: 12-0, SEC Eastern Division Champions.

Worst case Scenario: 7-5, middle of the SEC East

Prediction: 11-1, SEC Eastern Division Champions

I just can’t see Georgia losing any more than two games this season, but I think a one-loss regular season is just as likely. Because Tennessee and Kentucky aren’t looking as good as they did in the spring, those games are no longer toss ups.

A 5-0 start will give this squad the confidence they need to end the regular season with the SEC East crown. When they do lose, it’ll come to either Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt or South Carolina. maybe Missouri, but that’s the least likely.

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Recent history however suggests Georgia will beat Auburn. Florida’s off-the-field issues could potentially derail their season. And South Carolina has to play in Athens. That leaves Vanderbilt with their stout defense and solid run game as probably the biggest foil for Georgia this year.

11-1 overall and 7-1 in the SEC will easily be enough for Georgia to win the division, and for Georgia to meet Alabama in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 2nd to determine who wins the SEC Championship, and who goes to the Sugar Bowl semi-final game.

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