Advanced stats paint an ugly picture for Georgia vs. Alabama

Some people hate stats while some people live by them, but when it comes to college football stats carry a lot of weight in discussions about the sport. That is most definitely the case as fans and analysts alike are comparing Georgia and Alabama in every possible way ahead of their showdown this weekend in Athens.

Unfortunately the advanced stats are favoring Alabama a few days out from this game.

Advanced stats predict Georgia to lose to Alabama

The above graphic has a lot of interesting metrics that are being used to predict the final score for Georgia's game against Alabama. Unfortunately this model is siding with the Crimson Tide as they predict Alabama to win by about four points.

Looking now at the individual metrics, there are a few things that stand out that might explain why this model is in love with Alabama. The first thing that jumps out is the success rate on third and fourth downs. The Crimson Tide are sitting just shy of 50 percent both on offense and defense while Georgia is at 30 percent on defense. If the Bulldogs are going to win this game they are going to have to be much better at getting their defense off the field than that.

Looking at the two offenses specifically now, Alabama has a 1.5 point advantage when it comes to net points per drive as well as a slightly better Quality Drive ratio.

So what does all this data actually mean? Absolutely nothing. This game more than likely will come down to the wire with both teams having a chance to emerge victorious. But to those fans who may think that the sky is falling after seeing these metrics, it is worth mentioning that Vegas still predicts Georgia will win by 2.5 points.