Do you believe in coincidences? Better yet, do you believe in data? Regardless of where you fall on that side of the coin, the numbers back it up. Kirby Smart has largely owned Tennessee since taking over as Georgia's head coach. He is 8-1 in this rivalry series dating back to his first game against the Vols in 2016. After losing at home in 2016 to Dobbs Nail Boot, Smart has won every meeting since.
Even more impressive, the games have not been particularly close since Josh Heupel took over as the Tennessee head coach. Smart is 4-0 against his coaching contemporary, winning by an average margin of victory of 20 points. Shockingly, the margin of victory in road games vs. Heupel's Volunteers have been even more lopsided. Georgia has won on average by 26 points in those games.
Wait until you get a load of this... Look at the type of bowls Georgia plays in after beating Tennessee!
Year | Away | Score | Home | Score | Bowl | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Tennessee Volunteers | 34 | Georgia Bulldogs | 31 | Liberty Bowl | TCU Horned Frogs |
2017 | Georgia Bulldogs | 41 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0 | Rose Bowl/National Championship Game | Oklahoma Sooners/Alabama Crimson Tide |
2018 | Tennessee Volunteers | 12 | Georgia Bulldogs | 38 | Sugar Bowl | Texas Longhorns |
2019 | Georgia Bulldogs | 43 | Tennessee Volunteers | 14 | Sugar Bowl | Baylor Bears |
2020 | Tennessee Volunteers | 21 | Georgia Bulldogs | 44 | Peach Bowl | Cincinnati Bearcats |
2021 | Georgia Bulldogs | 41 | Tennessee Volunteers | 17 | Orange Bowl/National Championship Game | Michigan Wolverines/Alabama Crimson Tide |
2022 | Tennessee Volunteers | 13 | Georgia Bulldogs | 27 | Peach Bowl/National Championship Game | Ohio State Buckeyes/TCU Horned Frogs |
2023 | Georgia Bulldogs | 38 | Tennessee Volunteers | 10 | Orange Bowl | Florida State Seminoles |
2024 | Tennessee Volunteers | 17 | Georgia Bulldogs | 31 | Sugar Bowl | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
In Georgia's one loss to Tennessee since Smart took over, a three-point defeat at home on a Hail Mary by the way, it was the only time the Dawgs did not get to a New Year's Six Bowl under his watch. That was his first year at the helm of his alma mater. Georgia still went 8-5 with a Liberty Bowl win over TCU. Ever since blowing Tennessee out in 2017, it has been all New Year's Six Bowls for the Bulldogs!
And because the New Year's Six are part of the College Football Playoff, you know what that means?!
A victory over Tennessee on Saturday for Georgia means likely CFP bid
In four of the seasons where Georgia beat Tennessee under Smart's watch, the Dawgs qualified for the College Football Playoff: 2017, 2021, 2022 and 2024. In those four playoff runs, Georgia has gone a combined 5-2 with back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022. As for the four years Georgia did not make the playoff after beating Tennessee (2018-20, 2023), they still made it to the New Year's Six.
Furthermore, Georgia has finished each season in which it beat Tennessee ranked inside of the top eight in both major polls. In those eight seasons, Georgia is 8-3 in bowls/postseason games. Outside of the COVID season, a win over Tennessee likely indicates Georgia will win at least 11 games in a 14-plus-game season. Again, this may be purely coincidental, but what does this dominance really say?
Throughout this dynastic run, Georgia seems to gain quite a bit of confidence from its early-season games with Tennessee. Emotions are always high in this rivalry series, but whenever Georgia gets a win over the Vols under Smart, it seems to propel them into mid-season mode. It is usually after this game that Georgia plays with the confidence of a champion. Maybe that will continue for this season?
For now, it is about taking each game week one day at a time for the Bulldogs to keep the streak alive.