Death, taxes, and the Georgia Bulldogs finding a way to win games in the second half. After being tied 10-10 heading into halftime, Georgia got down to business in the second half to defeat the arch rival Florida Gators in The Cocktail Party, 24-20. Georgia could have won by a larger margin, had Gunner Stockton not wisely taken a knee at the one-yard line to avoid another Kirby Smart ass-chewing later.
Georgia is now 7-1 on the season and an ultra-impressive 5-1 in SEC play. While Florida was not a signature win for the Dawgs, it helps keep their strong playoff dreams alive. According to ESPN's FPI, Georgia beating Florida by four points in Jacksonville improved their playoff percentage odds to 85.5 heading into Week 11. It has Georgia as one of 10 teams with better than a 50-50 shot of getting in.
Of course, that one three-point home loss to Alabama continues to be the bane of the Dawgs' existence when it comes to not only potential playoff seeding, but also hurting Georgia's chances of getting to Atlanta. They may have a 17.6-percentage chance to repeat as SEC champions again, but will they even get there? Georgia needs Texas A&M to lose at least once, and Alabama to lose twice...
So with all that in mind, let's see what the latest College Football Playoff bracket simulation can tell us.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Week 10
Based solely on FPI and the College Football Playoff's requirements, here is who would be getting in.
- Indiana Hoosiers (9-0): Projected Big Ten champion (99.0 playoff percentage)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (98.8 playoff percentage)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-0): Projected SEC champion (96.4 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1): Projected SEC runner-up (92.5 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (7-1): Projected SEC at-large (85.5 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (8-1): Projected SEC at-large (77.6 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (7-1): Projected Big Ten at-large (76.9 playoff percentage)
- BYU Cougars (8-0): Projected Big 12 champion (74.3 playoff percentage)
- Texas Longhorns (7-2): Projected SEC at-large (54.4 playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1): Projected Big 12 at-large (51.0 playoff percentage)
- Virginia Cavaliers (8-1): Projected ACC champion (29.0 playoff percentage)
- North Texas Mean Green (8-1): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (28.0 playoff percentage)
And for a bit more clarity, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field in this exercise.
- 13. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2): SEC (36.1 playoff percentage)
- 14. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2): SEC (30.3 playoff percentage)
- 15. James Madison Dukes (7-1): Projected Sun Belt champion (27.6 playoff percentage)
- 16. South Florida Bulls (6-2): Projected AAC runner-up (25.7 playoff percentage)
Georgia is once again the No. 5 seed, despite having an 85.5-percentage chance to make the playoff. This is because Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M have not lost yet, as well as Alabama owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. All four of those teams have better than 92-percent odds to make it in. We should wonder if the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will ding Alabama for its bad loss...
Now that we know who is getting in, let's take a look at the first-round matchups and those on a bye.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Here are the four teams getting a first-round bye, as well as the four first-round playoff matchups.
- No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
- No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (BYE)
- No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (BYE)
- No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 12 North Texas Mean Green
- No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers
- No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- No. 8 BYU Cougars vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns
Georgia being the No. 5 seed means the Dawgs would host the Group of Five champion. Right now, the North Texas Mean Green would be the team to come out of The American in that regard. For as much fun as Eric Morris' team is having right now in Denton, the Mean Green do not stand a chance Between the Hedges. Georgia will cake walk quite easily to its national quarterfinals game after them.
Ole Miss would host Virginia in the No. 6 vs. No. 11 game. Virginia may be having a blast right now, but Ole Miss is actually a great team. The Rebels will prevail over the Cavaliers. Oregon may be hosting Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders may have a bit more substance to them, so they will be pulling off the upset. BYU will be hosting Texas in Provo, but Steve Sarkisian will beat his alma mater like a drum here.
Now that we know who will be advancing to the national quarterfinals, let's seed who will be playing.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
These would be the national quarterfinal matchups as the first four of the New Year's Six Bowl games.
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Indiana would take the Rose Bowl, where the Hoosiers will welcome Texas. We cannot wait to see Curt Cignetti hit them with the Horns Down postgame. Ohio State will be drawing Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. Joey McGuire's Red Raiders will be happy just to be there, and it will be reflected in the final score. Texas A&M may pick the Cotton Bowl over the Sugar Bowl when the Aggies take on Ole Miss...
Ole Miss has a puncher's chance here, but Texas A&M plays slightly better defense to advance. And there you have it, Georgia vs. Alabama again, only this time it will be in the Sugar Bowl. Even if it was the Cotton Bowl, it will not matter. This game is being played below The Mason-Dixon Line. For that reason, I have been hurt too many times to realistically believe Georgia is going to win that ballgame.
With Georgia out of it after another Alabama loss, let's turn our attention to the national semifinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
These would be the two national semifinal games to round out the New Year's Six Bowl allotment.
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies
Indiana may regret taking the Peach Bowl, as that is Alabama's second home away from Tuscaloosa. The Hoosiers have been the best team in college football through the first 10 weeks. Assuming the Hoosiers win out and are undefeated at this point, how will the handle getting punched in the mouth? It is in this game where Ty Simpson shows he should have won the Heisman over Fernando Mendoza.
As for the Fiesta Bowl, it will be a clash of two massive NIL spenders from two Power Two leagues in Ohio State out of the Big Ten and Texas A&M out of the SEC. With Texas A&M winning the SEC, one would think they would have lost to Texas to allow the Longhorns into the playoff. While they are able to generate some momentum, Ohio State has been here before and it is hard to see them losing here.
Two of college football's biggest brands will be taking part in a most glorious helmet game this year.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
Once again, it will be a rematch of the 2020 National Championship Game in the same freaking venue!
- College Football Playoff National Championship Game: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
The only difference this time is Ohio State will come out on top. The Buckeyes have been the better team throughout. What this will come down to is Ohio State's ability to run the football. Alabama has struggled with that all season long. Although Kalen DeBoer will have gotten back to the national title bout for the second time in three years, he will come up empty-handed again, as Ohio State repeats.
To tie a bow on this from the Georgia perspective, the team seems to be playing with enough confidence since falling at home to Alabama over a month ago. Should the Dawgs win out to finish the season at 11-1 (7-1), they might have a shot to end Alabama's season if they were matched up again. It is so hard to beat the same team twice in a season. Then again, Alabama has owned Georgia.
Georgia has the mental fortitude to win a national title, but it needs to find a bit more firepower soon.