Gravity always wins. Look no further than Georgia's elite ability to run the football downhill when the game is hanging in the balances. This team is built to win when it is winning time. Fresh off their ninth win of the season, Georgia finishes SEC play with an impressive 7-1 record. Their only blemish on the season up to this point was a three-point home loss to a playoff-bound Alabama Crimson Tide team.
Heading into the third College Football Playoff rankings of the season, Georgia is almost certainly going to be ranked either No. 3 or No. 4 on Tuesday night. It will come down to how the Selection Committee views the still undefeated Texas A&M Aggies. They may not have a loss on their resume yet, but Georgia has played the far tougher conference schedule. Maybe the committee will see that?
And even if FOX Sports' Joel Klatt is pounding the table for Georgia to be ranked higher, it really only matters who makes the playoff and what seed they are given here in a few weeks. When looking at ESPN's Football Power Index, Georgia is a lock to make the playoff at 99.1 percent. They are one of four teams above the 99-percent threshold, as well as 11 with better than a 50/50 shot to make it in.
So without further ado, let's take a look at this week's playoff projections, based only on ESPN's FPI.
Projected College Football Playoff field after Week 12, based on only FPI
Based solely on ESPN's FPI playoff percentages, this would be the 12-team playoff field for this week.
- Texas A&M Aggies (10-0): Projected SEC champion (99.9 playoff percentage)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-0): Projected Big Ten champion (99.8 playoff percentage)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (99.8 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (9-1): Projected SEC runner-up (99.1 playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1): Projected Big 12 champion (90.9 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (10-1): Projected SEC at-large (89.1 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (9-1): Projected Big Ten at-large (86.6 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2): Projected SEC at-large (83.2 playoff percentage)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2): Projected national independent at-large (61.1 playoff percentage)
- James Madison Dukes (9-1): Projected Sun Belt champion (53.2 playoff percentage)
- Oklahoma Sooners (8-2): Projected SEC at-large (50.3 playoff percentage)
- North Texas Mean Green (9-1): Projected AAC champion (37.5 playoff percentage)
To add a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff field.
- 13. Utah Utes (8-2): Projected Big 12 runner-up (38.5 playoff percentage)
- 14. BYU Cougars (9-1): Big 12 (37.7 playoff percentage)
- 15. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-1): Projected ACC champion (34.8 playoff percentage)
- 16. Virginia Cavaliers (9-2): Projected ACC runner-up (31.9 playoff percentage)
Georgia would get a top-four seed and a first-round bye in this playoff projection. It should be noted that the ACC does not get a team in this year. Not Georgia Tech, not Virginia Tech, not Miami, nobody. Taking their place as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion would be the North Texas Mean Green out of The American. Look at James Madison getting a No. 10 seed out of the Sun Belt. Crazy!
Now that we know who is making the playoff, let's take a look at what the first-round matchups will be.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Here is every team that will be getting a first-round bye, as well as the four first-round matchups.
- No. 1 Texas A&M Aggies (BYE)
- No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
- No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (BYE)
- No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 North Texas Mean Green
- No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners
- No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 James Madison Dukes
- No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Texas A&M, Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia get the four first-round byes as Big Ten and SEC champions and runners-up. Texas Tech will host North Texas in the No. 5 vs. No. 12. Ole Miss gets another crack at Oklahoma in the No. 6 vs. No. 11. Oregon gets an insanely easy first-round matchup in James Madison in the No. 7 vs. No. 10. The No. 8 vs. No. 9 will be Alabama hosting ... Notre Dame.
For the sake of simplicity, Texas Tech and Oregon advance rather effortlessly. North Texas and James Madison are not in their class as programs up to this point. As for the Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma rematch, let's give it to the Sooners here. Beating the same team twice is so hard. A healthy John Mateer and a disinterested Lane Kiffin play a part in this. Alabama cannot run the football, but Notre Dame sure can!
Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oregon and Notre Dame live to fight another day heading to the quarterfinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
Behold! The four national quarterfinals matchups in this College Football Playoff bracket simulation.
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- Orange Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Again, it may not be up to Texas A&M picking what bowl the Selection Committee forces them to. The Aggies may prefer the Cotton Bowl over the Sugar Bowl, but it will not matter. This is because the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been playing a playoff game ever since losing to the Aggies up in South Bend. They will enact revenge and will be moving on instead of A&M here. It seems like fate...
Indiana is going to wipe the floor with Oregon in the Ducks' new house of horrors in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State will have too much depth at key positions for Oklahoma to conceivably pull off the upset in the Orange Bowl. While it will be too close for comfort at times in the Sugar Bowl, Georgia is simply too gifted on offense for Texas Tech to keep pace with them in the end. Tortillas shall exit stage right.
With Notre Dame, Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia all advancing, let's see who plays in the semifinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
With the final four teams decided already, here is who will be playing who in the national semifinals.
- Peach Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Because Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers live and die on Easy Street, Indiana will claim the Peach Bowl over the Fiesta Bowl in their presumptive Big Ten Championship Game rematch vs. Ohio State. Unfortunately for them, Ohio State will be playing with an edge that Cignetti's team is not ready for. It will get ugly before Indiana pulls off some backdoor-cover nonsense like it did in the playoff last year.
As for Georgia, even though the Dawgs will have to play in an unfamiliar territory in Greater Phoenix, this is when Notre Dame's magical ride comes to an end. Notre Dame may be able to run the football, but can CJ Carr throw it on this defense. More importantly, this will be the game where Gunner Stockton proves to everyone that he should have won the Heisman Trophy instead of a Big Ten guy.
With Georgia and Ohio State advancing, let's see who is going to prove victorious in Miami for it all.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
A clash of college football blue-bloods will be on hand in the national title bout down in Greater Miami.
- College Football Playoff National Championship Game: No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
The last time these two teams played, Georgia defeated Ohio State in the 2022 Peach Bowl at the stroke of midnight because of a missed Noah Ruggles kick. Georgia would go on to repeat as College Football Playoff National Champions. Ohio State would win its second national title in the playoff era two years later. Will Ohio State be repeating? Not a chance. Georgia will win because of Kirby Smart.
Overall, it is interesting to see how much more navigable the playoff path is without drawing Alabama in the national quarterfinals every single time. Should Georgia face Alabama again, the Bulldogs likely beat them. Again, they are peaking at the right time, while Alabama is dealing with the harsh consequences of not having a reliable running game. Georgia can win it all now from any seed it gets.
No matter how you slice it, Georgia has become the toughest draw any team could face in the playoff.