Three weeks in, and what do we really know, honestly? There are a handful of teams that look like they belong in the College Football Playoff. The Miami Hurricanes look like the class of the ACC, while the Oregon Ducks do not look to be skipping a beat offensively with Dante Moore as their starting quarterback. As for other teams like the Georgia Bulldogs, they look the part, but it is still quite early.
Thankfully, the numbers can do the heavy-lifting for us. From ESPN's College Football Power Index, Georgia is one of three teams with better than a 75-percent chance of making the 12-team field. The Bulldogs are also one of seven teams with a better than 50-percent chance of making it in. Only Ohio State and Oregon have better odds than them, so could they run the table as the No. 3 seed in this?
Let's have a little fun today and see what a way-too-early College Football Playoff bracket looks like!
Projected College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Week 4
Based solely on ESPN's FPI and College Football Playoff requirements, these would be the 12 teams.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0): Projected Big Ten champion (77.1 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (3-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (76.7 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (3-0): Projected SEC champion (76.5 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (3-0): Projected SEC runner-up (60.1 playoff percentage)
- Miami Hurricanes (3-0): Projected ACC champion (58.5 playoff percentage)
- USC Trojans (3-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (56.5 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1): Projected SEC at-large (55.1 playoff percentage)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (48.3 playoff percentage)
- Texas A&M Aggies (3-0): Projected SEC at-large (46.9 playoff percentage)
- Oklahoma Sooners (3-0): Projected SEC at-large (42.9 playoff percentage)
- Utah Utes (3-0): Projected Big 12 champion (28.2 playoff percentage)
- Memphis Tigers (3-0): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (27.1 playoff percentage)
And for a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out, all of which hail from the SEC...
- 13. Texas Longhorns (2-1): SEC (42.8 playoff percentage)
- 14. Missouri Tigers (3-0): SEC (36.7 playoff percentage)
- 15. LSU Tigers (3-0): SEC (34.1 playoff percentage)
- 16. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1): SEC (30.8 playoff percentage)
At this stage of the game, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Miami feel like obvious inclusions. Ole Miss having the fourth-best percentage is odd, but kind of makes sense. USC having the sixth is strange to see the least. While it is good to see Texas A&M and Oklahoma make the field, it should be noted that it feels like a 50-50 proposition that either Alabama and/or Penn State end up getting in.
Now that all 12 teams have been set for this hypothetical exercise, here is how it all could unfold...
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Based on the seeding above, here are the four teams getting byes and the four first-round matchups.
- No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 2 Oregon Ducks (BYE)
- No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (BYE)
- No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels (BYE)
- No. 12 Memphis Tigers at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 11 Utah Utes at No. 6 USC Trojans
- No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
While Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Ole Miss get to rest easy during the first round, No. 5 Miami will host No. 12 Memphis, No. 6 USC will host a former Pac-12 South rival No. 11 Utah, No. 7 Alabama will host emerging SEC foe in No. 10 Oklahoma, and No. 8 Penn State will be hosing No. 9 Texas A&M. For as much as chalk would make sense in this exercise, there will be a few upsets in the first round...
Miami cake walks past Memphis, but the three other road teams all prove victorious in this simulation. Kyle Whittingham's Utes play with more heart than Lincoln Riley's Trojans to advance. John Mateer has a field day over a bewildered Crimson Tide defense. In a game that will go down to the wire, Marcel Reed comes through in a way that Drew Allar never could to lift Texas A&M over Penn State.
With only eight teams left, here is who could be playing each other in the national quarterfinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
These would be the national quarterfinals matchups based on seeding and conference allegiances.
- Rose Bowl: No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 2 Oregon Ducks
- Sugar Bowl: No. 11 Utah Utes vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
- Orange Bowl: No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels
No. 1 Ohio State draws No. 9. Texas A&M in the Rose Bowl. No. 2 Oregon heads to DFW to take on No. 10 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. No. 3 Georgia awaits No. 11 Utah in the Sugar Bowl. No. 4 Ole Miss has to play No. 5 Miami in the Hurricanes' home stadium in the Orange Bowl. Looking at these matchups, college football fans would be lucky to get two competitive games or so from this round.
Ohio State's big-game experience proves out over the Aggies to advance to the national semifinals. Dan Lanning's defense forces one too many turnovers out of Mateer's hands to move on. Georiga crushes plucky Utah's spirit in what will be Whittingham's final game leading the Utes before retiring. In the best game of this round, Carson Beck gets his revenge on Lane Kiffin from last season to win.
And then there were four... Who could be playing in the national semifinals in this amazing exercise?
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
These would be the two matchups of note in the national semifinals of this playoff bracket projection.
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Peach Bowl: No. 2 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
The Fiesta Bowl will be a rematch of the 2002 National Championship between Miami and Ohio State. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, it may go in Ohio State's favor once again, though maybe not as dramatic as last time. The Peach Bowl will be another meeting between mentor and protege with higher-seeded Oregon coming to the Dawgs' backyard. It will not be 2022's opener, but it will be bad.
From there, let's take a look at who could be playing for a national championship in this simulation.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
This year's national title bout will be played over at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Orange Bowl.
- College Football Playoff National Championship: No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
It will be a rematch of the 2021 Peach Bowl, the one where Georgia won when the clock struck midnight on 2021 and run in the new year with an Ohio State missed field goal and a return trip to the national championship. In this simulation, Ohio State being the No. 1 seed may indicate that Buckeyes are either undefeated, or handed Oregon its lone loss on the year up to that point to win the Big Ten.
Georgia probably wins the SEC in this simulation, but drops a regular-season game. The projected playoff odds indicate that it is probably coming at home to either Alabama next week or vs. Ole Miss later on. Either way, the Dawgs will play a little more loose in this one. It will work to their advantage with Ryan Day and his coaching staff playing tight. Brian Hartline struggles to move the football here.
To tie a bow on this, Georgia benefits tremendously from getting the No. 3 seed. This happened last year for Penn State in one of the strangest seedings we will ever see. While having to play two physical teams in a row in Utah and Oregon to even get to the title bout, once again, Georgia is on an incredibly shortlist of getting to the national title bout. Ohio State is the other team that feels likely.
Getting a top-four seed remains top priority, but Georgia can definitely win it all as the No. 3 seed.