College Football Playoff projections, Week 6: Georgia's Alabama woes set up hard path

After suffering their first loss of the season, the Georgia Bulldogs went from comfortably in the College Football Playoff field, to being on the brink of missing it entirely. A three-point home defeat to your perpetual nemesis in the Alabama Crimson Tide will do that to you, apparently... Regardless, there is still a lot of football left to be played this season. Georgia will have opportunities to make it in.

When looking at the latest AP Top 25 Poll, Georgia came in at No. 12 entering Week 6. While the delightful Associated Press still views the Dawgs as a top-12 team in the nation, that would not be good enough to make the playoff field because of the five best conference champions requirement. The Selection Committee would be walking with Memphis rather than putting the Dawgs in that spot.

So without further ado, would the Dawgs still be good enough to make the field based solely on FPI?

Projected College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Week 6

Based on only the latest ESPN FPI playoff percentages, this would be the projected playoff field.

1. Oregon Ducks (5-0): Projected Big Ten champion (86.9 playoff percentage)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (86.7 playoff percentage)
3. Indiana Hoosiers (5-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (69.1 playoff percentage)
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1): Projected SEC champion (69.0 playoff percentage)
5. Ole Miss Rebels (5-0): Projected SEC runner-up (68.5 playoff percentage)
6. Miami Hurricanes (4-0): Projected ACC champion (67.1 playoff percentage)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (4-0): Projected SEC at-large (56.1 playoff percentage)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1): Projected SEC at-large (56.0 playoff percentage)
9. Texas Longhorns (3-1): Projected SEC at-large (51.2 playoff percentage)
10. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0): Projected SEC at-large (46.2 playoff percentage)
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0): Projected Big 12 champion (35.7 playoff percentage)
12. Memphis Tigers (5-0): Projected AAC/Group of Five winner (34.8 playoff percentage)

For a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field in this wild exercise.

• 13. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0): SEC (42.6 playoff percentage)
• 14. BYU Cougars (4-0): Projected Big 12 runner-up (35.2 playoff percentage)
• 15. Missouri Tigers (5-0): SEC (34.8 playoff percentage)
• 16. Michigan Wolverines (3-1): Big Ten (34.5 playoff percentage)

Georgia would get the No. 8 seed, which is key because the Dawgs would be the last team getting a home game in the first round. It may only be against the No. 9 seed in Texas, but we saw No. 8 Ohio State win it all last year from that position. The Buckeyes clobbered Tennessee in that first-round game. With the way the percentages unfold, the No. 8 seed indicates Georgia beat Texas this season.

Now that we know who is making the College Football Playoff in this exercise, what are the matchups?

Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes

These would be the four teams getting first-round byes, as well as the four-first round matchups.

• No. 1 Oregon Ducks (BYE)
• No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
• No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
• No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (BYE)
• No. 12 Memphis Tigers at No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes
• No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 9 Texas Longhorns at No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs

Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama all get first-round byes, with the eight other playoff teams having to take part in the first round. Ole Miss would host regional rival Memphis in the No. 5 vs. No. 12. ACC champion Miami draws Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the No. 6 vs. No. 11. Texas A&M gets Oklahoma in the No. 7 vs. No. 10. Georgia hosts Texas a second time this year in the No. 8 vs. No. 9.

Beating the same team twice in one year is hard, but doing it two years in a row is even sweeter, so we are taking the Dawgs on top over Texas! Oklahoma has too much firepower for a just happy to be here Texas A&M team. Miami has more depth than Joey McGuire's Texas Tech team could ever hope to shake a finger at. Ole Miss has more high-end talent over rival Memphis to win the No. 5 vs. No. 12.

Now that we know who is advancing, let's take a look at who would get to the national quarterfinals.

Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals

These would be the four national quarterfinals matchups as part of the New Year's Six Bowl games.

• Rose Bowl: No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks
• Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
• Orange Bowl: No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers
• Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide

It will be top-seeded Oregon vs. a battle-tested Georgia team in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State would then take the Cotton Bowl where the Buckeyes would await Oklahoma. Indiana will be the favored team over Miami in the Hurricanes' home stadium in the Orange Bowl. Rounding out the national quarterfinals will be a pair of SEC foes duking it out in the Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Alabama.

If this game were played on the East Coast, Georgia may have a chance, but Oregon is not losing at the No. 1 seed at the Rose Bowl in back-to-back years. Ohio State's experience in these playoff games gets the Buckeyes past Oklahoma. Miami uses its home-field advantage to its benefit to defeat Indiana. Ole Miss gets better coaching out of Lane Kiffin to sink Kalen DeBoer's Alabama team.

Moving on to the national semifinals, let's see who will be playing who in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.

Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals

These would be the four teams left in the College Football Playoff playing in the national semifinals.

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks
• Peach Bowl: No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Oregon taking on Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl might get to 100 combined points. Unfortunately for the Rebels, this is the final station for the Lane Train, as Oregon's depth engulfs the Landshark Defense. Ohio State vs. Miami in the Peach Bowl will be a rematch of the 2022 national championship game. The only difference is Miami wins this game because Carson Beck finds a way Julian Sayin cannot.

Now that we know who is advancing to the national championship in Miami, who will come out on top?

Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship

This would be the projected national championship game in this College Football Playoff simulation.

• College Football Playoff National Championship: No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks

The Mario Cristobal Bowl between his alma mater and his former team in his alma mater's house of worship. What could possibly go wrong? Dan Lanning would be on the precipice of his first national championship as head coach, as well as the first in Oregon football history. Miami has won five before in its illustrious football history, but is has been almost a quarter century since The U last won it all.

This will be a game that everyone who played in the College Football Playoff wishes they were in because of so many countless mistakes on the field. It will be a "Who wants it more?" type of title bout. In the end, Cristoal shrinks in big moments, while Lanning shrinks slightly less. Oregon does the improbable and would presumably go 16-0 en route to winning the 2025-26 national championship.

To wrap this up and tie it back to Georgia, we have seen the importance of getting favorable matchups by way of seeds. While Georiga could clip Oregon in the Rose Bowl in this hypothetical, they may not have it in them to win four playoff games in a row at the team's current state. With the team slotted in the No. 7 to No.10 range right now, it is hard to see the Dawgs getting to the semis.

Getting a top-four seed is of the utmost importance, but you have to make the 12-team field first...

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