ESPN's FPI shockingly predicts Georgia to lose upcoming game
Georgia football has finally hit their stride this season. Throughout the Bulldogs' first six games, there were a lot of things that just didn't feel right about this team. But then this past Saturday happened, and Georgia knocked off the No. 1 team in the country in the Texas Longhorns.
Expectations for this Georgia team are sky high now. They are now one of the favorites to win the SEC and College Football Playoffs, they have risen to No. 2 in the AP Poll, and most feel like they should be able to win their final five games of the regular season.
There's a reason I said "most" because ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) surprisingly only has Georgia favored in four of their last five games.
Opponent | FPI chance to win |
|---|---|
Florida | 79% |
@ Ole Miss | 45.7% |
Tennessee | 61% |
UMass | 99% |
Georgia Tech | 89.3% |
Even if Georgia would have lost to Texas, most still would've felt that they deserved to be favored in all five of their final games. But even after looking as dominant as they did against Texas, the FPI still predicts Georgia to lose to Ole Miss.
When thinking about this, there is only one explanation I could come up with to explain why Ole Miss is favored against Georia. Home field advantage.
Yes Ole Miss is a good football team, but are they good enough to be favored against Georiga even at home? Most would likely believe Georgia should still be favored.
The Rebels have also been struggling recently, losing two of their last three games. One of those losses was in overtime and on the road against LSU, which by no means is a bad loss. But earlier this season they did lose to Kentucky which isn't the best loss for any team's resume.
Ole Miss has fallen to No. 18 in the AP Poll, which suggests that they are still a very good team. Nobody will deny that. But Kirby Smart and Georgia have seemingly hit their stride and should easily be favored to win their final five regular season games.
It will be interesting to see if this metric adjusts as time goes on, because it just makes no sense to have Ole Miss favored right now after what has gone down the last couple weeks.
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