Are you paying close attention? If the Georgia Bulldogs hold serve at home and defeat the Alabama Crimson Tide Between the Hedges on Saturday night, not only will it almost certainly propel the Dawgs into the College Football Playoff, but it might effectively knock the Crimson Tide out of the race entirely. This would be two high-quality wins for Georgia, as well as two big losses for Alabama...
When looking at ESPN's Football Power Index heading into Week 5, college football fans have to recognize how much the percentages of making the playoff are in Georgia's favor over Alabama. As of Wednesday afternoon, Georgia has the second best odds of making it in at 74.6 percent, behind only Ohio State. Alabama has the ninth best odds at 49 percent and would barely make the playoff.
Based entirely on ESPN's FPI, this would be the projected playoff field if the season ended right now.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0): Projected Big Ten champion (76.3 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (3-0): Projected SEC champion (74.6 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (4-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (71.8 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (4-0): Projected SEC runner-up (67.7 playoff percentage)
- Miami Hurricanes (4-0): Projected ACC champion (61.4 playoff percentage)
- Indiana Hoosiers (4-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (57.8 playoff percentage)
- Texas Longhorns (3-1): Projected SEC at-large (49.7 playoff percentage)
- USC Trojans (4-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (49.2 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1): Projected SEC at-large (49.0 playoff percentage)
- Oklahoma Sooners (4-0): Projected SEC at-large (45.2 playoff percentage)
- Memphis Tigers (4-0): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (36.2 playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0): Projected Big 12 champion (32.8 playoff percentage)
Admittedly, it is hard to factor how much Georgia's playoff chances will improve with a home win over Alabama in Week 4 other than it will be higher than 74.6 percent. The same principle applies to Alabama's playoff chances dropping from 49 percent with a loss. Is Georgia guaranteed to make the playoff with an Alabama win? No, but another Alabama loss puts the Tide's chances on life support.
The SEC is going to get at least four teams into the playoff this year, but the season is far from over.
Georgia has a chance to knock Alabama out of the playoff picture already
To make the math simpler, Georgia is projected to make the College Football Playoff three quarters of the time, while Alabama is only projected to make it half the time. Obviously, those percentages will go up and down over the course of next weekend's games and how they all shake out. While Georgia is in good shape with a loss to Alabama, a win would certainly take some much-needed pressure off.
One of the biggest advantages to Georgia's schedule is the Dawgs get the bulk of their hard games at home this year. This is coming off the heels of winning a wild one on the road at Tennessee. Georgia draws the likes Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home this year. Two of Georgia's three losses came to those teams on the road. The only road game they got out of the trio was defeating Texas in Austin.
Ultimately, Georgia cannot afford to count its chickens before they hatch this season, especially with the sly fox that is Alabama wandering around the henhouse. That being said, the chance to effectively knock Alabama out of the playoff race is entirely too good to pass up. The last thing Georgia needs is for another rematch with the Crimson Tide to pop up on the schedule later on. Go get it taken care of!
Nobody has an 80-percent or better of making the playoff right now, but Georgia might with this win.