Fresh off their first of two annual bye weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs are sitting pretty as one of the top five teams in the country. Of course, they need to protect their home turf vs. the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night Between the Hedges. While Georgia's College Football Playoff chances are incredibly high, based on ESPN's Football Power Index, they will be even higher with a Week 5 win.
For the second week in a row, we are going to let FPI playoff percentages do the hard work for us. It is a way to potentially see what is coming down the track without letting the heat in the moment get in the way of things. The good news for Georgia fans is the Bulldogs are comfortably in the playoff in this simulation, getting another first-round bye. The bad news is this trial run is a bit more challenging.
So let's have some fun today and see what this latest College Football Playoff bracket could look like!
Projected College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Week 5
Based on ESPN's FPI and the College Football Playoff requirements, here are the 12 teams getting in.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0): Projected Big Ten champion (75.9 playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (3-0): Projected SEC champion (74.3 playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (4-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (72.4 playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (4-0): Projected SEC runner-up (68.4 playoff percentage)
- Miami Hurricanes (4-0): Projected ACC champion (60.8 playoff percentage)
- Indiana Hoosiers (4-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (59.0 playoff percentage)
- Texas Longhorns (3-1): Projected SEC at-large (49.4 playoff percentage)
- USC Trojans (4-0): Projected Big Ten at-large (49.3 playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1): Projected SEC at-large (49.2 playoff percentage)
- Oklahoma Sooners (4-0): Projected SEC at-large (45.4 playoff percentage)
- Memphis Tigers (4-0): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (36.2 playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0): Projected Big 12 champion (32.6 playoff percentage)
For a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out in this playoff bracket simulation.
- 13. Texas A&M Aggies (3-0): SEC (43.3 playoff percentage)
- 14. Missouri Tigers (4-0): SEC (39.7 playoff percentage)
- 15. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0): Big Ten (38.8 playoff percentage)
- 16. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0): SEC (37.5 playoff percentage)
The top four teams from last week are the same. Georgia moved up to No. 2, while Oregon dropped down to No. 3. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 4 Ole Miss get the other two first-round byes. Rounding out the playoff field are Miami, Indiana, Texas, USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Memphis and Texas Tech. These percentages screw the first four teams over hard in Texas A&M, Missouri, Penn State and Vanderbilt.
Now that the 12 teams have been set in this hypothetical exercise, here is this it all could unfold...
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups and byes
Based on the seeding above, here are the four teams getting byes and the four first-round matchups.
- No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (BYE)
- No. 3 Oregon Ducks (BYE)
- No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels (BYE)
- No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 11 Memphis Tigers at No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 7 Texas Longhorns
- No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 USC Trojans
With Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon and Ole Miss getting first-round byes, here is who would play out of the gate. Miami draws Texas Tech in a compelling No. 5 vs. No. 12 game. Two traditional basketball schools go at it in the No. 6 vs. No. 11 with Indiana hosting Memphis. It will be a Red River rematch in No. 7 vs. No. 10 with this one in Austin. Alabama hosts USC in Tuscaloosa in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game.
While there could be a few first-round upsets, some higher seeds advance. Miami getting Texas Tech at home proves to be the difference. Indiana is too menacing for Memphis to get the best of the Hoosiers. Until Arch Manning can live up to the hype, take John Mateer's team instead. As for USC coming into Bryant-Denny, a playoff-bound Alabama team would be playing with more juice than USC.
Now that we know who won the four first-round games, let's turn our attention to the quarterfinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
These would be the four national quarterfinal games and their respective bowl game designations.
- Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Sugar Bowl: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
- Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 2 Oregon Ducks
- Orange Bowl: No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels
Alabama vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl will be a ratings bonanza, more so than a close game. Georgia will face SEC foe Oklahoma down in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl. Two Big Ten teams clash in the Cotton Bowl with Indiana taking on Oregon. As it was last week, the Ole Miss Rebels will be coming off a bye to face Miami at Hard Rock Stadium in what could be an Orange Bowl for the ages.
At this stage of the tournament, it will be mostly chalk advancing. Ohio State will win the Julian Sayin bowl, thanks to Julian Sayin... Georgia will win an ultra-physical game over Oklahoma in New Orleans. Oregon being well-rested helps the Ducks prevail past Indiana in DFW. It may come down to the final possession, but Miami advances over Ole Miss, because of the home-crowd advantage at Hard Rock.
Moving on to the subsequent round, these would be the four teams playing in the national semifinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
With only four teams left, these are the two national semifinals matchups in this playoff simulation.
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
Ohio State vs. Miami in the Fiesta Bowl may end up being the best game in this tournament. At this stage of the game, all four of these teams could win or lose any of their remaining games. Miami advances here because of Carson Beck. As for the Peach Bowl between Georgia and Oregon, expect for it to be a nail-biter, but the home-crowd and travel advantage is why the Dawgs will prevail here.
And just like we all predicted, we will have Georgia vs. Miami in Miami for the national championship.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
Ladies and gentlemen, we will have ourselves a Carson Beck/Mark Richt Bowl national title bout!
- College Football Playoff National Championship: No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
As stated during the national semifinals stage of this College Football Playoff bracket simulation, any of the final four remaining teams could conceivably win a national championship in this exercise. Truth be told, picking Georgia over Miami here may be a bit of a homer pick, but coaching is the deciding factor here. Kirby Smart will run laps around Mario Cristobal. That would prove to be the difference.
What is important to understand here is Georgia's pathway to a national championship as the No. 2 seed, when compared to the No. 3 seed last week is much more difficult. As the two-seed, the Dawgs would draw the winner of the Red River rematch between Oklahoma and Texas. Beating the same team twice in one season is hard, let alone three times if Georgia were to face Texas in Atlanta again.
After that physical battle, Georgia would have to face one of the most impressive teams in the country so far in Oregon. Yes, the game being in Atlanta is a huge help for the Dawgs. However, it will be closer than anyone in Athens probably would have expected. To then play another physical team in Miami down at the Hurricanes' place for a national title would make things that much more difficult.
If Georgia won the College Football Playoff as the No. 2 seed in this bracket, build Smart his statue...