Are you paying close attention? For as much hoopla as there is of people getting back onto the Texas Longhorns hype train, need we remind you how they looked vs. the same competition Georgia faced. No, this is not to say that Texas is incapable of handing Georgia an upset loss on the road at Sanford Stadium, but the idea of it happening is a bit more removed from reality than what they might think.
As far as the overall game plan to neutralize Arch Manning and the Texas offense, ESPN's Bill Connelly may have spelled it right out there for Georgia to take. Obviously, nothing comes easy for this Georgia defense, but Connelly seems to have a great read on what could very well happen on Saturday night. Georgia will take away the run and allow Manning to complete passes in the short-to-medium range.
From there, they will see if Manning is capable of beating the Georgia defense over the top. Georgia will occasionally give up the big play, but nowhere near as frequent as it did earlier in the season. Manning is a bit erratic as a passer. While he is capable of running the ball himself, Texas' ground game is nowhere near as prolific as what Georgia's has become with Gunner Stockton under center.
Stockton is not a proficient deep-ball passer yet either, but he knows how to use his running game.
Georgia might try to see if Arch Manning can beat the Dawgs over the top
Not to dive too deep into the weeds with the overall context of Connelly's post for ESPN, but he made it a point to say Texas' offensive game plan at home vs. Vanderbilt might be how Steve Sarkisian plans to attack Georgia's defense this year. It may be a lot of dink-and-dunk with some timely third-down completions from Manning. Keep in mind that Vanderbilt does not have a great defense in the SEC...
What is very important to understand is that even though Manning and Stockton offer similar skill sets at the quarterback position, Texas has really struggled to run the football all season long. They too have a good run defense, but Georgia has been able to get to an 8-1 record, based largely on their ability to lean on people late in games. It is amazing what happens when your line gets healthy.
The reason Texas nearly let Vanderbilt steal that game from them is because Texas cannot reliably run the football. It is the same issue that may end up hurting Alabama later on. Keep in mind that Georgia did not allow a point in the second half to Alabama... They made the necessary adjustments on Ty Simpson to at least make a game of it. Manning is not on Simpson or Stockton's level at this juncture.
In the end, Texas can win this game, but it is not going to be in spite of Manning. He has to be a driving force to make it happen for the Longhorns. Again, Texas upsetting Georgia is totally plausible, but the analytics say Georgia has this. ESPN Bet's current betting line is Georgia -5.5. SP+ projections have Georgia winning by 4.4. The FPI projection has Georgia winning by 2.3. So another game not covered!
Georgia has a little bit more wiggle room than Texas, so maybe they can use that to their advantage?