At 6-1 (4-1) on the season, the Georgia Bulldogs are in fantastic shape to make it back to the College Football Playoff. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Dawgs an 81.5-percentage chance to make the 12-team field. However, that is only the fifth-best odds of any team in the country, including behind a pair of SEC teams in Texas A&M (96.0) and Alabama (92.4). Will Georgia make it to Atlanta?
Well, that may not be entirely up to them. Georgia's only loss on the season came to Alabama at home by three points. Although the Crimson Tide's lone loss on the campaign is looking worse and worse by the week, Florida State does not play in the SEC. This means Alabama needs to lose twice in conference play in November for the Dawgs to take their spot. As for Texas A&M, the Aggies are 8-0.
Since Georgia and Texas A&M do not play each other this season, the Dawgs need the Aggies to lose at least once to conceivably take their spot. Rather than figure out tiebreakers at this time, let's just say Texas A&M controls its own destiny to Atlanta, while Georgia does not... In the event all three teams in question win out, Georgia would finish the regular season at 11-1 (7-1) and will wait patiently.
At this time, let's unpack who Georgia fans could conceivably root for in that potential SEC title bout.
Why Georgia fans should root for Texas A&M over Alabama in Atlanta
If Texas A&M were to win the SEC over Alabama with either a 13-0 or 12-1 record, the Aggies will be a top-two seed in the country, along with whoever wins the Big Ten between Indiana, Ohio State and maybe even Oregon. Assuming Georgia wins out to finish the season at 11-1, the Dawgs will likely be no better than the No. 4 seed, but no worse than the No. 6 seed. No. 5 feels the most likely, then No. 4.
Alabama suffering either a second or potentially a third loss on the year would have the Crimson Tide seeded no higher than No. 4, probably more likely to be in the No. 5 through No. 8 range, especially if the Crimson Tide were a 10-3 team with losses to Florida State in the non-conference, Texas A&M in Atlanta and another SEC team in conference play. The committee will not punish them that severely...
Unless undefeated teams like BYU or Georgia Tech win out, which would include a second Georgia loss to the Yellow Jackets in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, we are looking at Georgia potentially finishing the season at 11-1 (7-1). The Dawgs would be one of four SEC locks to make the playoff along with league champion Texas A&M, runner-up Alabama and another one-loss team in Ole Miss.
This collection of scenarios are all about making Alabama's pathway harder in the 12-team playoff.
Why Georgia fans should root for Alabama over Texas A&M in Atlanta
In the event that Alabama beats Texas A&M to win the SEC with either one or two losses on the season, the Crimson Tide will surely be a top-three seed, probably the No. 2 in most estimations. The Florida State loss is going to hurt them more so than we may realize. There is a chance the Big Ten loser gets the No. 2 seed between Indiana and Ohio State, assuming it is the only loss between them.
In that situation, Alabama, Indiana and Ohio State are 1-2-3 in some order, with Georgia and Texas A&M being the No. 4 or No. 5 in most estimations. If Texas A&M is 11-2 after falling to Alabama, Georgia could conceivably get the No. 4 seed over the Aggies, but do not bank on it. Again, it is hard to see anyone else getting into the mix of the top five at this time if these ones take care of business.
For the sake of simplicity, let's say the top five in this exercise would be Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia, with Ohio State and Alabama winning their Power Four leagues. Georgia's only loss would be by three points at home to the No. 2-seeded SEC champion Alabama. They would take on Texas A&M in probably the Cotton Bowl after beating the snot out of the Group of Five winner.
As long as Alabama is not the No. 1 seed, UGA would avoid playing them until the national title bout.
What is most likely to happen in this College Football Playoff scenario
A lot can happen between now and then, but let's use the path of least resistance here. Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M all win out. This means Georgia Tech loses to Georgia in Atlanta, Michigan is a three-loss team, and Texas is a four-loss team. The Jackets may need to win in Charlotte over Louisville, Miami or Virginia to make the playoff. They will be treated like SMU in 2024...
For the sake of simplicity, let's say the more traditional powers of Alabama and Ohio State win their respective leagues, while Indiana and Texas A&M suffer their first losses in their conference title bouts. Ohio State would be No. 1, Alabama No. 2, Indiana No. 3, Texas A&M No. 4, and Georgia No. 5. Ole Miss and Oregon will likely be top-eight teams, as would either the ACC or Big 12 champion here.
As the No. 5 seed, Georgia would host the presumptive Group of Fie champion before playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl in the quarterfinals, as SEC champion Alabama would "choose" the Sugar Bowl. Georgia would then play top-seeded Ohio State in either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl in the semifinals, before potentially facing the winner of No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Indiana for a national title.
Georgia may not be able to avoid Alabama entirely, but delaying it for as long as possible is the best.
What Georgia Bulldogs fans should want more than anything else here
Heading into November, Georgia fans should want one thing above all else when it comes to the playoff, besides making the 12-team field, of course: Be on the other side of the bracket from Alabama. Again, seeding is everything. One half of the bracket is this: No. 1, No. 4, No. 5, No. 8, No. 9, No. 12. The other half of the bracket is this: No. 2, No. 3, No. 6, No. 7, No. 10, No. 11. This is everything!
So to avoid Alabama for as long as possible, Georgia might actually rather see the Crimson Tide beat the Aggies in Atlanta to win the conference. Texas A&M is the second or third most likely team to get the No. 1 seed behind Indiana and Ohio State in some order. Alabama would likely be a distant fourth because of the bad non-conference loss to Florida State. A loss to Texas A&M makes them No. 4 or 5.
Since an 11-1 (7-1) Georgia team is far more likely to be the No. 5 seed than the No. 6, you do not want to play Alabama in the Sugar or Cotton Bowl in the national quarterfinals if you can avoid it, regardless of it UGA were to somehow get a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed in this situation. There are other complexities here, including if Georgia loses a second game. For now, this is the best path.
Until proven otherwise, Georgia fans should root hard for Alabama to win out to avoid playing them.