Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman Trophy favorite, with Ohio State QB Julian Sayin and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love trailing closely behind. Diego Pavia and Marcel Reed are on the periphery of the race for college football’s most important individual accolade.
Heading into Week 14, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton belonged in that latter group alongside his fellow SEC passers, but after the Bulldogs’ 16-9 win over Georgia Tech in Clean Old Fashioned Hate on Friday evening in Atlanta, those slim hopes have disappeared.
While leading Georgia to an 11-1 finish in the regular season, Stockton went just 11-21 for 70 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Even if Georgia is able to sneak its way into the SEC Championship Game with a loss by Texas A&M or Alabama in Week 14, Stockton has too much ground to make up.
How Georgia Tech exposed Gunner Stockton’s biggest weakness
Many times this season, Stockton had to be Georgia’s hero following slow first halves and persistent defensive struggles. He came through with his first-career 300-yard performance in an overtime win against Tennessee. From Week 8 on, he was one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the country, accounting for 15 touchdowns between Weeks 8 and 12, with two wins over then top-10 ranked teams, Ole Miss and Texas.
The level of efficiency that the Georgia offense operated with through that stretch was absent on Friday. Stockton averaged 3.65 yards and a season-low -0.42 EPA/dropback. Georgia managed a 52 percent rushing success rate, but complemented that with just a 17 percent success rate through the air.
While there could be Georgia fans with two years' worth of scars, real or perceived, who default to blaming Mike Bobo. The bad news is that there wasn’t much that Bobo could do to counteract Georgia Tech’s perfect game plan for dealing with Stockton and the Georgia offense. The worse news: teams may be able to replicate it in the postseason.
All season, Gunner Stockton has been significantly more effective and efficient against man coverage. All four of his previous interceptions had come against zone, and each of Georgia’s top five receivers averages more yards per route against man than zone.
So, Georgia Tech played coverage most of the night, dropping eight defenders as often as possible, forcing Stockton to patiently read through his progressions. Zone coverage has exploited Stockton’s weaknesses in his first year as a starter, but it’s not just a Stockton issue, and it wasn’t on Friday night.
Georgia’s much-improved wide receiver corps is tailor-made to beat man coverage with quick separators like Zachariah Branch and London Humphreys and contested catch winners like Noah Thomas and Colbie Young. That often forces Stockton to funnel more targets to his running backs and tight ends, limiting the passing game’s explosiveness.
Up front, Georgia lost veteran starting center Mike Bobo against Georgia Tech and was without right tackle Earnest Greene III for stretches. So, with a dominant interior pass-rusher like Jordan van den Berg, Georgia Tech was still able to get pressure when it opted to play coverage on passing downs. Despite relying on light defensive fronts, the Yellow Jackets finished with two sacks and seven tackles for loss. Especially when you’re limited in the passing game, those are drive killers.
The best counterpunch for that defensive approach is to run the ball, and Georgia did effectively. It will need to do the same throughout the postseason because this approach will be replicated. More than that, though, the Bulldogs have to finish. Georgia kicked field goals from the Georgia Tech four and 12-yard line, and had a 31 percent red zone success rate.
Why Stockton can still lead Georgia on a national championship run
Stockton’s Heisman chances may have disappeared on Friday night, but Georgia’s national championship chances grew. Kirby Smart’s team won a game as Kirby Smart’s teams typically do. It controlled the time of possessions, ran the ball, and didn’t allow anything defensively.
Stockton’s Heisman case was largely predicated on his late-game heroics and strong second halves. Those were necessitated by the Dawgs’ defensive struggles, particularly a lackluster pass rush that struggled to replace Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker from last season’s defensive line.
Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann, though, seem to have solved those problems. The Georgia defense looks like the best it has all season, and even if he’s not the most statistically dominant player in the country, Stockton has proven that with his toughness and mobility, he can play complementary football.
That’s exactly what he’ll need to do in the College Football Playoff, and with an 11-1 finish, it’s possible that Georgia misses the SEC Championship Game, but still secures a first-round bye in the CFP with a top-four seed.