The first two months of the college football season are in the books. Next up is the one that really counts. With Halloween night upon us and Week 10 being fully underway on Nov. 1, teams like the Georgia Bulldogs are inching ever closer to making the College Football Playoff field. Entering Week 10, Georgia has the fifth-best odds of making the playoff at 79.3 percent, according to ESPN's FPI.
At this stage of the season, any team that is and around 75 percent is a borderline lock to make the playoff. If a team is above 90 percent, they are essentially a lock. Any team that is above 60 percent should feel very good about its chances. Anyone that is around 40 is still very much in this thing. Right now, Georgia would be comfortably in the playoff field as the projected No. 5 seed in the playoff.
Entering Week 10, the Dawgs are 6-1 overall and 4-1 in SEC play. They have two signature wins over Tennessee on the road in overtime, as well as a shootout victory over Ole Miss at home two weeks ago. Their only loss was a three-point thriller at home to perpetual nemesis Alabama. Georgia has five games left to be played: vs. Florida, at Mississippi State, vs. Texas, vs. Charlotte and vs. Georgia Tech.
Let's now unpack a handful of situations that could impact Georgia's playoff chances this weekend.
What a win over Florida would mean for Georgia's playoff chances
Should Georgia take care of business and beat an unranked Florida Gators team in Jacksonville, the Dawgs will improve to 7-1 on the season and 5-1 in SEC play. They would need to beat Mississippi State and Texas to have a realistic shot of playing in the conference title bout. To make the playoff, Georgia could afford to lose one of their final four games, not including at home to awful Charlotte.
Truth be told, Georgia has very little to gain and everything to lose in this game. Beating a major rival will do wonders for the team's overall morale heading into the final third of its season. However, we may not see the Dawgs' FPI percentage go up that much by beating the Gators. It should be firmly inside of the 80s after briefly falling out of them. Simply put, a win over Florida provides wiggle room.
Taking three-of-four between Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte and Georgia Tech will get them in.
What a loss to Florida would do to Georgia's playoff chances
There is no way around it. A loss to Florida in Jacksonville would really throw a wrench in everything. Georgia's FPI percentages would take a huge nose dive. Not to say it would be a 50/50 proposition of them getting in, but Georgia would have to win out. There is no margin for error in their biggest games after this with Texas at home and vs. Georgia Tech in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate at Mercedes-Benz.
While a Georgia win over Florida would keep the Dawgs in the running for a first-round bye, a loss to Florida effectively removes that notion from the equation entirely. If Georgia were to get in at 10-2 (6-2) with losses to Alabama and Florida, the Dawgs would be the fourth, maybe fifth SEC team to get in. They would have to play in the first round, potentially as one of the four programs on the road as well.
Any more losses beyond a hypothetical one to Florida would knock Georgia out of the playoff picture.
Results that could provide some clarity to Georgia's playoff positioning
These next few sections will be a little more up for debate. What really is good for Georgia and what is honestly bad for the Dawgs? To keep it simple, we are only looking for results that would provide some level of clarity. Is this team still in the playoff mix or not? Upsets are bound to happen in college football. Since we did not get any last week, we are overdue for some, so keep that in mind with this.
Here are some potential Week 10 results that would be good for Georgia's chances of making it in.
- Vanderbilt upsetting Texas
- SMU upsetting Miami
- Virginia Tech upsetting Louisville
- Boston College upsetting Notre Dame
- Purdue upsetting Michigan
- Oklahoma playing Tennessee
- USC playing Nebraska
This is not a catch-all of things Georgia fans should be rooting for in ranked matchups this week. That being said, if any of them happen, that would be fantastic for Georgia for a plethora of reasons. Before we unpack this, let's put these seven games into one of three buckets: Possible, improbable and certain. Vanderbilt and SMU are possible. Virginia Tech, Boston College and Purdue are not likely.
Vanderbilt beating Texas would do two things to help Georgia. First, it would hand Texas its third loss of the season and second in SEC play, effectively knocking them out of the playoff picture. It would also improve Georgia's chances of beating the Longhorns in a few weeks since they will already be out of it. As far as Vanderbilt is concerned, they are on the same pathway into the playoff as UGA is.
SMU upsetting Miami would probably have the Hurricanes out of the playoff picture. That would be their second conference loss, with the other being to Louisville. Because Georgia Tech and Virginia do not have conference losses yet, Miami may miss out on the playoff with a 10-2 (6-2) mark in ACC play. SMU is not a playoff team this year, but the Mustangs have the ability to play the ultimate spoiler.
Virginia Tech beating Louisville, Boston College beating Notre Dame, and Purdue beating Michigan are probably not going to happen. However, another loss for the Cardinals, the Fighting Irish or the Wolverines effectively removes their chances of getting in the playoff in one way, shape or form. Since Georgia is probably going to end up being one of seven at-large teams in, this would help out.
With Oklahoma playing Tennessee, the Josh Heupel Bowl is a playoff elimination game. Someone is losing their third conference game in this one. Oklahoma has fallen to Texas and Ole Miss already, while Tennessee has losses to Georgia and Alabama. The winner is still alive to make the playoff, but not really. The same thing applies to who wins in Lincoln between USC and Nebraska in the Big Ten.
If Georgia is rooting for anything, it is for Vanderbilt to beat Texas, and Tennessee to beat Oklahoma.
Results that would only further complicate Georgia's playoff positioning
Now for the other side of the coin. Since this is college football, nothing hardly ever goes according to plan. As is the case with things that could improve Georgia's playoff positioning or clarity, any of these results would only further complicate things. Not all of these will directly impact Georgia in a bad way, but these results will end up having Georgia fans pondering what is to come after Week 10.
If there are seven "good" results for Georgia, how about seven "bad" ones for the Dawgs this week?
- Penn State upsetting Ohio State
- Texas beating Vanderbilt
- West Virginia upsetting Houston
- Maryland upsetting Indiana
- Notre Dame beating Boston College
- South Carolina upsetting Ole Miss
- Utah beating Cincinnati
As was the case in the previous blurb, we will put each of these into buckets. Since there are no certain outcomes of a winner or loser, it will just be possible or improbable here. Texas beating Vanderbilt is possible, as it Notre Dame beating Boston College and Utah beating Cincinnati. Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland and South Carolina proving victorious are of the improbable variety.
Texas beating Vanderbilt keeps the Longhorns' playoff dreams alive, while simultaneously putting the 'Dores on the brink. It may result in a more impressive win should Georgia beat Texas in a few weeks, but why give this team even more undeserved confidence? Notre Dame still hanging around could impact the last team in race, while Utah handing Cincinnati a second loss messes up the Big 12 here.
Penn State upsetting Ohio State could have the Dawgs shoot past Ohio State in the rankings. To what degree, we have no idea... West Virginia stunning Houston would only add more confusion in what could become yet another Big 12 race for the ages. Maryland shocking Indiana would be even more unbelievable than Penn State being Ohio State. Ole Miss losing to South Carolina would be so, so bad.
Texas beating Vanderbilt would be less than ideal, while Ole Miss falling would hurt Georgia's resume.
What the most expected series of outcomes from this weekend could be
Of these many games in question, here is what feels like the most probable outcomes for Week 10.
- Ohio State beats Penn State
- Texas beats Vanderbilt
- Miami beats SMU
- Houston beats West Virginia
- Louisville beats Virginia Tech
- Indiana beats Maryland
- Georgia beats Florida
- Notre Dame beats Boston College
- Ole Miss beats South Carolina
- Michigan beats Purdue
- Tennessee beats Oklahoma
- USC beats Nebraska
- Utah beats Cincinnati
So Georgia improves to 7-1 (5-1) in all likelihood. As far as the other outcomes are concerned, the only expected outcomes that are good for Georgia, assuming chalk prevails of course, is Ole Miss beating South Carolina and Tennessee beating Oklahoma. Georgia's two best wins get magnified with the Volunteers beating the Sooners and the Rebels beating the Gamecocks. Not much else will help.
If there is one outcome to root for an upset, it has to be Vanderbilt beating Texas at DKR to knock the Longhorns out of the playoff mix. While Georgia could afford a loss to Texas later on, assuming a win over Florida on Saturday of course, a loss to the Longhorns would not be as good in the Selection Committee's eyes if Georgia were to be the team to hand Steve Sarkisian's squad the knockout blow.
So in the end, should chalk prevail, Georgia would still be the No. 5 team in the country, but with a slightly better playoff percentage. Not just by virtue of the Dawgs picking up another conference win, but by Ole Miss improving its standing to get in, as well as Tennessee doing its part of keeping its slim chances alive, while simultaneously knocking Oklahoma out of the picture entirely. You got it? Good!
Georgia fans was a Dawgs win, a Vols win, a Rebels win, and arguably a 'Dores win over the 'Horns.