Earlier this week Georgia football opened as a 6.5 point favorite over Ole Miss. That spread quickly moved one more point in UGA's favor to 7.5 points which seemed like a lot for a matchup against a top five team in the country.
But data shows that Vegas oddsmakers might be on to something, because whenever Georgia welcomes a top 10 team to Athens under Kirby Smart they are perfect against the spread.
Georgia is 7-0 against the spread when a top 10 team comes to Athens under Kirby Smart.
— Jon Tweets Sports (@jontweetssports) October 16, 2025
The Dawgs are a 7.5 point favorite vs Ole Miss this weekend.
I'm loading the wagon on Georgia to cover. https://t.co/kt01sKPDti
Vegas odds for Georgia vs Ole Miss explained by key data point
Ole Miss enters Saturday's matchup undefeated and the No. 5 team in the country. Georgia on the other hand is not perfect as they have dropped one game so far this season and sit at 5-1. The Bulldogs are still one of the best teams in the country and are currently ranked inside the top 10 of the AP Poll as well, but looking at their overall records alone shows that Ole Miss has a great chance to win this game.
The above date paints a different picture though. Georgia has played a top 10 team at home seven times during Smart's tenure at Georgia, and they are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in those games. So while playing at home is already a big advantage, it appears Vegas is picking up on this trend from Georgia and have decided to favor UGA by even more because of it.
It will be interesting to see if Georgia will be able to keep this perfect streak alive this weekend against Ole Miss or not. Beating the Rebels by eight points seems like a tall task, especially after last season's 18 point loss, but as long as Georgia wins (even if it's by less than 7.5 points) then no Georgia fan will leave Sanford Stadium upset.