No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama final odds and predictions

Since taking over as the head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs in 2016, Kirby Smart has only beaten Alabama once, in the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. However, Smart’s 1-5 record against the Crimson Tide has all come with Nick Saban, Smart’s former boss when he was the defensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa from 2008-15. 

The duo won four national championships together, and Smart stole one away as his opponent, but now in 2024 as No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia at Bryant Denny Stadium, Smart will look across Nick Saban Field and see a different face. In his first season as Saban’s replacement, Kalen DeBoer is off to a 3-0 start, but his team is a home underdog for the first time since Saban’s first season in 2007. 

Let’s take a look at the odds for this SEC showdown on Saturday night. 

Georgia vs. Alabama odds, spread, and total

These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline

• Georgia -110
• Alabama -111

Spread

• Georgia -1.5 (+100)
• Alabama +1.5 (-122)

Total

• 50.5 (over -105/under -115)

Georgia vs. Alabama prediction

When Saban decided to retire after the 2023 season came to an end, Alabama’s roster underwent changes, but it wasn’t gutted. DeBoer kept most of the important pieces in Tuscaloosa and even brought center Parker Brailsford with him from Washington sure up the offensive line for quarterback Jalen Milroe. 

Last year in the SEC Championship, Milroe didn’t complete many passes, just 13 of his 23 attempts, but those 13 completions went for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe more importantly than Milroe’s propensity for big plays, Alabama also won the battle in the trenches, holding Georgia to 78 rushing yards and gaining 114. 

With 17-year-old freshman receiver Ryan Williams, Milroe still has a big-play threat through the air, and with Georgia’s recent slew of injuries, the Bulldogs could be outmatched on the lines of scrimmage. Georgia will be without right guard Tate Ratledge, defensive linemen Mykel Williams and Jordan Hall are both questionable, and Warren Brinson is listed as probable. 

The lack of depth created by these injuries on the interior could make it tough for quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense to match Milroe, especially if offensive coordinator Mike Bobo doesn’t give him the chance to. 

So far this season, Bobo has leaned heavily on a struggling run game that ranks 92nd in success rate, especially on early downs. That’s left Beck to do a lot of late-down heavy lifting. Georgia has an averaged third-down distance of 7.42 yards which is 33rd percentile in the country and that’s accompanied by a late-down success rate of 42.9% (41st percentile). 

If Bobo continues to stick Beck with third-and-long, Georgia may take its first loss of the season and first regular season loss since November 7, 2020. That and the injury concerns are a big reason to be worried, but I’ll predict a 21-20 Georgia win.