Just because the Georgia Bulldogs pulled off a massive road upset of the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night does not mean it is time for Mike White's team to take its foot off the gas pedal. While the thrilling 86-76 road victory will improve their NET rating, as well as their positioning in Friday's Bracketology update, Georgia has to avoid a potential nightmare scenario the rest of the way.
Because Georgia was not expected to beat Kentucky in Lexington, this road victory probably gets UGA well beyond the cut line when it comes to making the field of 68. Barring something unforeseen happening, Georgia should be making the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back postseasons. Of course, that unforeseen scenario is possible because this is Georgia basketball. What would that be?
As long as Georgia does not suffer a Quad 3 home loss to South Carolina, the Bulldogs should make the NCAA Tournament. Simply, as long as Georgia does not lose to South Carolina at home, all should be good in the world for Dawg Nation. This is because a Quad 2 loss to either Texas at home or on the road at Mississippi State could be countered with this Kentucky win. A bad Quad 3 loss might erase it.
Let's take a look at Georgia's NCAA Tournament resume and who all the Bulldogs will still have to play.
Georgia must avoid South Carolina loss to make the NCAA Tournament
On the year, Georgia is 18-8 overall and 6-7 in SEC play. The Bulldogs have a NET rating of 39, which should go up after the Kentucky road win is accounted for. Georgia has a 4-6 record in Quad 1 games with wins over Arkansas, at Missouri, at LSU, and now at Kentucky. It is 5-1 vs. Quad 2 opponents with its only loss being at home to Texas A&M. UGA is 0-1 in Quad 3 games with a home loss to Ole Miss.
With only five SEC regular-season games left, Georgia has two more Quad 1 games at Vanderbilt (Feb. 25) and home vs. Alabama (March 3). A win in either of those games is unexpected, so they should only be seen as resume boosters and not detractors. It has two more Quad 2 opponents in Texas at home on Feb. 21 and at Mississippi State to end the regular-season schedule on March 7.
In short, a Quad 2 loss to either Texas or Mississippi State can be offset by the Quad 1 road win over Kentucky. Georgia needs to win one of these games in all likelihood on its path to 20 victories on the season... However, a home loss to South Carolina in a Quad 3 may do irreparable damage to UGA. 20 wins might be out of the question. If they do not get to that mark, they may be playing with fire again.
Overall, the only way Georgia misses out on the NCAA Tournament now is if it loses its final five SEC games, including the South Carolina home date. While a 20-11 (8-10) mark should be enough to get in anyway before the SEC Tournament tips off, an 18-13 (6-12) record will not cut it. As far as a 19-12 (7-11) mark is concerned, Georgia may need to win an SEC Tournament game to guarantee a spot in.
For now, Georgia needs two more wins to make the tournament, including one over South Carolina.