If you're looking to place a bet on the Georgia-Alabama game and have been looking at the various lines out of Vegas, you may be suffering from motion sickness. This week's matchup between the No. 2 and No. 6 ranked teams in the country seems to have bettors wringing their hands over the potential outcome.
This has been an absolutely volatile betting line from the start. The opening odds saw Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite, but by Sunday afternoon, that had moved to Georgia being a 1.5-point favorite. This morning, Alabama is again the favorite by that same 1.5 points.
There's also no real consensus among various sportsbooks. The market simply isn't unified right now. Current odds range from Alabama -1.5 to Georgia -2, depending on the sportsbook or market being reported.
Is Vegas just chasing the money, flipping the odds when one of the teams starts getting a lot of the betting action? There's no way of truly knowing, as lines can move because of respected action, liability, new information, and market-making books reacting to one another. But the repeated movement itself for this game is quite the story.
Even ESPN and Vegas aren't seeing Georgia-Alabama quite the same way, with ESPN giving Georgia a 54.9% win probability.
Five days before kickoff, there's remarkably little agreement about which undefeated Top-10 SEC team should actually be favored. The only thing that's remained constant is the over/under sitting at 55.5 points.
The toss-up between Georgia and Alabama is happening with good reason
If ever there were a game that Vegas would give a big shrug to, it's probably this grudge match between the two biggest powers in the SEC over the past decade.
Both teams are 5-0; both have 4-1 records against the spread this season; both have won every game by a double-digit margin. Georgia is averaging 51.4 points per game on offense this season; Alabama is averaging 49.6 per game. The Bulldogs are giving up an average of 13.4 points, and the Crimson Tide have surrendered 20.8 per game.
It doesn't get much closer than that. Or maybe it does. The tale of the tape for this game is just a nightmare for bettors and oddsmakers.
STAT | UGA | BAMA |
|---|---|---|
3rd Down Percentage | 54.9% | 49.12% |
Passing Yards | 1,329 | 1,437 |
Rushing Yards | 1,065 | 932 |
Yards Per Game | 478.8 | 473.8 |
Total TDs | 34 | 28 |
Penalties/Yards | 26/253 | 35/229 |
Net Avg. Punt Yards | 48.1 | 44.8 |
Fumbles/Lost | 7/0 | 7/0 |
Interceptions Thrown | 1 | 2 |
Tackles for Loss | 32 | 30 |
TFL Allowed | 12 | 27 |
QB Sacks | 13 | 16 |
Sacks Allowed | 5 | 12 |
Time of Possession | 29:58 | 33:39 |
Up and down the stat line, Georgia and Alabama are as evenly matched as you'll ever see, though it does appear Georgia has a slight edge in offensive line performance and pass protection. The biggest difference in this game may simply be Alabama's home-field advantage and the fact that Georgia hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2007.
This will be a line to watch over the next few days. It wouldn't be surprising to see it end up as a Pick'em by the time we near kickoff on Saturday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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