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Vegas oddsmakers fatal flaw in Georgia's projected win total will be exposed

Vegas oddsmakers have some explaining to do.
ByTrevor Michael|
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Jan 1, 2026; New Orleans, LA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) passes the ball against the Mississippi Rebels in the second quarter during the 2026 Sugar Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images
Jan 1, 2026; New Orleans, LA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) passes the ball against the Mississippi Rebels in the second quarter during the 2026 Sugar Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

There are still over 25 weeks until the 2026 college football season begins, but it is never too early to start looking ahead. For Georgia they are looking to win their third straight SEC Championship while also hoping to make a much deeper run in the College Football Playoff this season.

Accomplishing either feat will not be an easy task, but Vegas oddsmakers recently weighed in on how they think this upcoming season will go for the Bulldogs. FanDuel Sportsbook projects Georgia will win 9.5 games, and that clearly is not good enough for the Bulldogs' expectations.

Who knows how they came up with this projection, but they clearly are forgetting one thing. Kirby Smart is still the head coach at Georgia.

Kirby Smart found new motivation based on Vegas' projected Georgia win total

The good news is that Georgia is porjected to finish at the top of the SEC. The bad news is that 9.5 wins isn't good enough for their standards.

This projection is a bit concerning because Vegas essentially thinks there is an equal chance Georgia wins nine and 10 games during the regular season. A 9-3 record would be disastrous as it would likely mean Georgia won't even make it to the SEC Championship game. They also would have a tough time getting into the playoff as well. So if Georgia only wins nine games (or even less), this season will go down as a failure.

Is nine wins even realistic though? Georgia will play nine SEC games this season for the first time, so that surely is factoring into this projection. Georgia also plays an extremely tough schedule which features road games at Alabama and Ole Miss while also playing host to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. All of those game are very challenging, so there is a slim chance they win less than nine games.

But Smart is one of the best (if not the very best) coaches in the country, and it appears Vegas forgot to factor that into their projection.

While it is nice to see Georgia projected to win the most games in the SEC this season, 9.5 wins isn't enough for their standards. Smart and Georgia now have something to prove, and based on the past they more than likely will show how wrong Vegas is.

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