There is still a ton of football left to be played, but here is where things stand when it comes to Georgia making the College Football Playoff, or potentially winning the SEC. Although the Dawgs do have the upper hand in some capacities to get to Atlanta over Texas A&M, losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to Alabama will make things challenging to repeat as league champions. It is what it is...
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Georgia entered its Week 9 bye with an 81.7 percent chance of making the playoff. That is the fifth best percentage odds in the country, but only third in the SEC behind Alabama (90.0) and Texas A&M (85.4). As far as winning the SEC is concerned, Georgia has the second best odds in the SEC at 19.2, but well behind Alabama at a whopping 53.4.
Texas A&M may have the third best chance of winning the SEC, but the Aggies are only being given an 8.8-percentage chance to do that at this point of the season. In a way, it might actually serve Georgia to not make the SEC Championship Game and let Alabama and Texas A&M or whomever beat each other up. Would an 11-1 (7-1) Georgia team get a first-round bye? It might not be out of the question.
Fewer chances for injury, extra time for healing and a mental break may help Georgia run the gauntlet.
Georgia could go on a national title run like Ohio State did a season ago
The pathway to winning a College Football Playoff in the 12-team era without winning one's conference is right there in front of Georgia. Only last season did a 10-2 (7-2) Ohio State win it all from the No. 8 seed. The Buckeyes lost two conference games on the season, on the road at Oregon and home vs. arch rival Michigan. They did beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame in succession.
Georgia is one of a few teams who have a deep enough of a roster to survive a three-or-four-game playoff gauntlet. Alabama, Ohio State and Texas A&M could do it, maybe Oregon, but that is about it. This is where teams like Indiana may run out of gas. Ole Miss would be in that vein as well. Miami is still an enigma because of the Mario Cristobal of it all. Georgia has playoff pedigree, above all else...
In the end, Georgia should be able to finish the season at 11-1 (7-1) with only a three-point loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide may have one loss on the year, but that came in the non-conference, and they would need to suffer two down the stretch in SEC play to avoid going to Atlanta and missing the playoff entirely. Georgia may still end up playing back-to-back games in Atlanta this season anyway.
What is important to know is that 13th data point might do more harm than good if it wins 11 games.