2024 Week 9 12-team College Football Playoff prediction
Georgia football just got done upsetting the top ranked Texas Longhorns on Saturday 30-15, and their reward when it comes to the College Football Playoffs is earning one of the four first round byes.
We still have a long ways to go this season and there likely will be many more upsets along the way, but here is how I have the 12-team CFP field seeded if the season were to end today.
Seed | Team | Bid |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | Big Ten Champ |
2 | Georgia | SEC Champ |
3 | Miami (FL) | ACC Champ |
4 | Iowa State | Big 12 Champ |
5 | Ohio State | At-Large |
6 | Texas | At-Large |
7 | Penn State | At-Large |
8 | Tennessee | At-Large |
9 | Clemson | At-Large |
10 | BYU | At-Large |
11 | Indiana | At-Large |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champ |
CFP Prediction Takeaways
1. Does Oregon or Georgia deserve the top spot?
I really wanted to put Georgia at No. 1, and I think there is a good chance they get there if they win out regardless of what Oregon does. But I have to respect the fact that the Ducks are undefeated and have two solid wins against Ohio State and Boise State, even if they were both at home. Georgia has a more difficult road in front of them the rest of the season, so if both teams win out I'll end up giving the nod to the Bulldogs.
2. Where's Alabama?
Did you notice that Alabama is missing from this list? I'll be honest that it felt very strange excluding them, but right now it's impossible for me to have them in the top 12. If the Tide win out and finish 10-2 they'll be in, but based on how they've been playing recently I don't think they'll be able to pull that off.
3. SEC and Big Ten dominate the at-large bids
Excluding the five highest ranked conference champions who automatically get a bid, the CFP committee gets to make seven at-large bids. And as it stands today, I think the SEC and Big Ten will get five of those bids. Tennessee, Texas, Ohio State and Penn State are all locks in my eyes to make the field, and right now I have 7-0 Indiana making it in as well.
Yes, you read that correctly, the Hoosiers are undefeated and appear to have one of the best offenses in the country. Indiana will be favored in their next three games before they head to Columbus for a showdown with Ohio State. Even if they lose that game, Indiana would still be in. But if they lose two games the rest of the season they are out due to their embarrasing schedule.
4. Here come the Broncos
Boise State still has the final spot and will have the 12-seed at minimum if they win out. But by the end of the season I think they will earn a higher seed than 12. The Broncos are already No. 17 in this week's AP Poll, so they are already very close to crackng the top 12 without the automatic bid. But it really is just a matter of time until more teams in front of them lose, which makes a clear path for Boise State to play for home field advantage in the first round of the CFP.
And you never know, there is a good chance in my eyes the Big 12 champion has a couple losses which would send Boise State into the top four. Now that is something I would love to see.
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